Week 4 NFL Parlay Play: Commanders buoyed by strong defense in Daniels’ absence

Favorites are winning at a high rate early in the 2025 NFL regular season, but we witnessed some surprising results as Green Bay lost straight up to Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite and Atlanta was blown out 30-0 by Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last week. Week 4 features plenty of intriguing games, and YouBet.com has selected three wagers for its parlay pick below.

Lines courtesy of BetMGM; times listed as Eastern Standard Time

Week 4 NFL Parlay Play (+595): Under 45 (Commanders-Falcons) - Patriots -5.5 - Over 48 (Bears-Raiders)

Commanders at Falcons, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 1 p.m.

Formerly an elite defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn has the rising Commanders defense playing at a high level, keeping their first three opponents in check, and the Falcons rank 31st in scoring (14 points per game). Michael Pennix has been too inconsistent for the punchless Falcons, and they really struggled against the Panthers last week. Mac Jones appears likely to start his second consecutive game in place of Jayden Daniels for the Commanders. Both teams will rely on defense as they attempt to grind out a win.

Pick: Under 45 points

Panthers at Patriots, Gillette Stadium, 1 p.m.

Like how the Patriots rebounded from a disappointing loss in the opener, overcoming recent trends to win at Hard Rock Stadium over the Dolphins in week two. Their offense figures to be motivated after losing a close game to the Steelers last week due to four lost fumbles. Mike Vrabel’s teams don’t take lower-rated competition lightly, recording a 28-11 SU record versus teams with a record less than .500, and the 1-2 Panthers are ripe for a letdown following a 30-point win. Teams winning by 30 points or more in the first seven weeks of the season are 36-57-3 ATS since 2003, and the Patriots will get back on track behind Drake Maye, whose fine performance last week (28-for-37 for 268 yards and a TD) was overshadowed by the turnovers.

Pick: Patriots -5.5

Bears at Raiders, Allegiant Stadium, 4:25 p.m.

The Raiders have been lacking defensive efficiency and appeared overwhelmed at times on both sides of the ball versus the Chargers and Commanders the last two weeks, but this is a spot for Geno Smith and the offense to get rolling against one of the league's softest defenses presently. The Bears started slowly defensively and have been decimated by injuries, with starting cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson, as well as linebacker T.J. Edwards, all sidelined. Both offenses look poised for success in Week 4.

Pick: Over 48 points