Argentina vs. Brazil: Copa America Final betting odds, preview, and pick

Lionel Messi will attempt to win his first major international trophy on Saturday, when he and Argentina square off with Neymar and Brazil in the 2021 Copa America final in Rio de Janeiro.

Brazil are expected to hoist the trophy at the end of the night, while goals are expected to be at a premium.

Is this Messi’s last chance?

At the age of 34, leading Argentina to silverware is seemingly the only thing Messi has yet to achieve in his legendary career. Everything Argentina has achieved in this tournament at the offensive end has gone through him, either via scoring a goal or being one of the last two players to touch the ball before a teammate did so. After falling to Brazil in the 2019 Copa America semi-finals, he will be eager to try to finally break through.

While he has taken care of business at the attacking end of the pitch, serious questions abound in Argentina's defense. Their midfield play and tactical setup has allowed them to paper over the cracks, along with the stellar play of Emiliano Martinez, whose antics in the semi-final shootout against Colombia have made him a cult hero. Against Brazil, neither may be enough to protect their slow defenders from the pace and technical ability that they will face in Neymar and company.

Manager Lionel Scaloni will have two major decisions to make with his lineup, both of which will directly impact how his team sets up and how the match will play out. Without a true defensive midfielder to protect his back line, he may be forced to drop Leandro Paredes for Guido Rodriguez, which will hinder their ability to control possession. However, if he plays both of them in a four-man midfield, he will be forced to drop physical winger Nicolas Gonzalez, who has played well in the tournament and has high work rates in both directions.

Brazil’s superior talent must shine through

Unlike their opposition, defense is one area Brazil have zero questions. Not only have they kept a clean sheet in four of their six matches thus far in the tournament, they have two keepers in Ederson and Alisson who could start for nearly any club in the world. Marquinhos is a rock in the middle, but partner Thiago Silva might be dropped for the match for Militao, so that they are able to apply more pressure on the Argentina midfield and deal with the pace of Messi and Lautaro Martinez in attack.

The midfield for Brazil will likely be set up to do just that, with Casemiro and Fred expected to disrupt play and get the ball to Lucas Paqueta. His job is simple: to link up with Neymar and blitz the Argentinian defense at full pace. With striker Gabriel Jesus still suspended, Neymar and Richarlison will be leading the attack while either Vinicius Jr. or Everton plays the third forward role.

While still five years younger than Messi, there is still pressure on Neymar heading into this final. He wants to take his place amongst the Brazilian greats, and Brazil have won every match in this tournament that he has played in. They are now unbeaten in their last 13 matches with 12 victories in that span, and he will hope that adding one more to the tally will not only raise his stock, but set Brazil up as a favorite heading into the 2022 World Cup.

Argentina vs. Brazil Trends

Brazil are unbeaten in their last 13 matches, with 12 resulting in regular-time victories. In their last four meetings, the teams have split the fixtures evenly. Their last four matches have seen a total of two or fewer goals, and their last five meetings have seen just one team score. The teams have also alternated victories in their last five meetings, with Argentina taking a 1-0 victory in the last one.

Brazil have conceded just twice in the tournament, and each of their last three matches have seen two or fewer goals. Argentina have conceded in just three of their six matches in the tournament, but two of their last three matches saw three or more goals.

In their last five appearances in the Copa America final, Brazil have taken victory in all five, winning four of them in regulation. Meanwhile, Argentina have lost their last four finals, two of those coming at the hands of Brazil.

Expect a cautious approach from Argentina

Argentina needed a penalty shootout to reach the final, and Martinez became a star with his heroics. However, they managed just four shots on target and one goal against Colombia, and were quite evenly matched throughout the contest.

How Argentina sets up will determine how this match goes. If they come out looking to take the match to Brazil and play with the 4-3-3, it will likely lead to Brazil hitting them on the counter. It will be a more entertaining match, but it would be playing into Brazil’s hands. I expect a more cautious approach from Argentina, which hurts Brazil a bit as they have struggled with their finishing at times against teams that do not leave them space in which to operate.

All that said, Brazil have the superior talent in defense, and their team is much more evenly balanced to play whatever style necessary to secure the victory. Argentina’s search for their first Copa America trophy since 1993 will go on, as Brazil outclass Messi and company and prove they will be a force next winter at the World Cup.

If you want to protect against extra time, use the TwinSpires Bet Builder to get the best value, and pair the Brazil/draw double chance with at least one side being kept off the scoresheet to give yourself positive odds.

Copa America picks: Brazil moneyline (+120); Brazil double chance AND both teams to score No (+125)