Brazil vs. Spain: Betting odds, preview, and pick for the gold medal game

Two of the biggest soccer nations in the world will decide the winner of the men’s Olympic gold medal on Saturday, Aug. 7 as pre-tournament favorites Spain take on second-favorites Brazil.

Brazil hoping to defend their gold medal

After winning gold on home soil in 2016, the Brazilian under-23 team is looking to make it two straight on the back of a stingy defense. After conceding twice in a first-day victory over Germany, Brazil have conceded just one goal in their last four matches, and have yet to be scored upon in the knockout stage. However, their goal-scoring has followed a similar pattern, as they have scored just once in 210 minutes of knockout football after having tallied seven goals in the group stage.

Richarlison has all but locked up the Golden Boot after his hat trick in the opening match, but the goals have dried up for him since the group stage. However, chances have not been lacking for the Samba Boys, with Matheus Cunha and Paulinho both playing well. However, Cunha missed out on the semifinal match, and is questionable for the final. That is a concern, as he is the only Brazil player to score during the knockout matches.

One thing that gives Brazil hope is the fact that, unlike Mexico and Egypt, they will not be facing a side that will bunker in against them. Spain will look to command possession, which will open up spaces for Brazil to operate on the counter.

Spain still struggling to score goals

The run of the Spanish U-23 side at the Olympics has closely mirrored that of the senior team at this summer’s European Championships. Both sides struggled to score goals for much of the tournament, but also saw matches where they found the back of the net five or more times. After scoring just twice in the group stage, the fewest goals of any team to advance, Spain bagged five against the Ivory Coast in the Olympic quarterfinal round in a 5-2 extra-time victory.

Spain yet again needed extra time to defeat Japan 1-0 in the semi-final, with Marco Asensio scoring a brilliant curled effort just five minutes from the end of the extra stanza. They dominated the match with nearly 70% possession and 20 shots, with 17 chances created and six shots on goal, but it still nearly went to penalties. Just like in the Euros, their inability to finish off their opportunities is preventing them from cashing in on their excellent midfield play.

With 240 minutes played in their last two matches, and many players having played in both tournaments, fatigue is a concern heading into the final. However, the Spanish side is likely to remain unchanged from the semifinal, and Mikel Oyarzabal will partner with Asensio and Dani Olmo in attack. Oyarzabal has played well in the tournament, having either scored or assisted on half of Spain’s eight goals. If Spain score in regulation, he will likely play a role.

Brazil vs. Spain Trends

Spain have not won a gold medal in soccer since the 1992 Summer Olympics in Barcelona, and have not medaled since 2000. Brazil have won a medal in four of their last five Olympic appearances, and are looking for their second consecutive gold medal.

Brazil’s U-23 side has gone unbeaten in their last seven matches, and over their last four matches they have kept a clean sheet three times. The total has gone Under two goals in three of those four matches as well. Meanwhile, Spain have kept just one clean sheet in their last three matches but have three in five in the tournament. Four of their five matches have seen two or fewer goals.

Alves will try to will Brazil to victory

Dani Alves has won nearly everything possible for club, but he has never won a World Cup or a gold medal. He desperately wants to add the latter to his collection, which is why at 38 years old he was one of the three senior players included. He has experience against a fair number of these Spanish players, having plied his craft for so long with Barcelona. His leadership could be one of the keys to victory.

Brazil is ready to capitalize on their golden opportunity

Spain’s inability to score goals on a consistent basis is a massive concern, especially given Brazil’s terrific defense this tournament. The amount of fatigue on their midfield legs is also a problem, and should allow the Samba Boys to get out on the break and create problems. Japan had multiple opportunities to score against Spain, and I don’t see Brazil wasting those similar chances.

Richarlison should find room to operate, and offers excellent value for those willing to take a chance on him. It might take extra time, but Brazil will make it two straight games with gold medals going around their necks as they do enough to get past Spain.

Tokyo 2020 Olympics men's soccer picks: Brazil U23 to win the trophy (-134), Richarlison to score anytime (+245)