Champions League preview: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

The UEFA Champions League is back, with eight teams vying for the final four spots in the quarter-final rounds. All four home sides are favored to advance, but Manchester City vs. Real Madrid is the marquee matchup. Both sides enter the contest with lots of star power, and both believe they can do what is needed to advance to the next round.

Team news

Manchester City enters the tie with a 2-1 aggregate lead, and the two away goals put them in a strong position to advance. Sergio Aguero is out of contention following knee surgery, so Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling will continue to lead the front line. Leroy Sane departed the club for Bayern Munich and will take no part in the action, while new signing Ferran Torres is not eligible to feature. Left-back Benjamin Mendy will also miss due to suspension.

Real Madrid will be without captain Sergio Ramos, who is suspended due to a yellow card he received in the first leg. His absence will be massive, not just defensively but for the threat he offers on set pieces. They will also be without Mariano Diaz, who is quarantined after testing positive for coronavirus. Marcelo is also likely to miss the match, as he is not yet fit from an abductor injury.

What the teams need

Any result for Manchester City will see them through to the next round. Thanks to their lead on aggregate, a 1-0 defeat would see them still advance, and a 2-1 loss would lead to extra time. A draw or win and they advance to face either Juventus or Lyon in the quarter-finals.

Madrid know they must score at least two goals on the night. Anything less and they go home. They also must win the match, so they will have no choice but to take some risks in the game. City will likely look to sit back and hit the opposition on the counter, which should lead to plenty of scoring chances.

Trends

Madrid overcame a deficit to Barcelona after the restart, winning ten consecutive matches to nip them to the La Liga title. Their scoring took a dip, as their average xGF dropped 0.4 goals per match, but their defense mightily improved. Karim Benzema was one of the best players in Europe over the past two months, and his 21 goals in league play were second only to Lionel Messi in league play.

Manchester City finished second to Liverpool in the Premier League, and they were knocked out of the FA Cup semi-final with a lacklustre performance against Arsenal. They won their final match against Norwich 5-0, but their defense has been shaky at times since the restart. However, in Pep Guardiola’s time at Manchester, his side have advanced all seven times when winning the first leg on the road.

Match result prediction

Madrid will have to push for goals, which will open them up to City’s potent counter-attack. With Ramos out of the lineup, Sterling and Jesus should cause problems at the back and score at least one. On the flip side, City’s defensive shortcomings will likely see them concede a goal or two against Madrid’s potent attack. Manchester City and Real Madrid have faced each other twice before in the city of Manchester, with each team taking a share of the spoils both times. I like for that trend to continue.

Free pick: Draw (+330)

Total goals prediction

This will be Pep Guardiola’s sixth knockout stage match at home with Manchester City. The previous five matches saw a total of 28 goals scored. City have scored four or more goals in four of their last six contests, including nine in two matches to end the Premier League season.

Madrid have not scored as many of late, but they were not shut out in any of their eleven matches since the restart. They found the scoresheet multiple times in eight of those eleven matches, with Benzema going on a tear.

With Madrid forced to score multiple goals, they will have to continue to push forward no matter how many they concede. Both teams are going to find the back of the net, so take both teams to score and combine it with the over for the best total value. If you believe the match will end in a high scoring draw, the Draw & Over 2.5 (+875) offers a shot at a rich payout.

Free Picks: Both teams to score & over 2.5 YES (-135); Draw & Over 2.5 (+875)

Goalscorer predictions

Sterling not only has been terrific of late, he also changed the first match with his introduction. Down 1-0 to Madrid, he created the first goal with his pace, getting in behind the defense and assisting Jesus. Then, he drew the penalty for the second goal later in the match. With Ramos out, he will very likely create more problems, and is likely to score.

Benzema has been unstoppable, with six goals and two assists in his last ten matches. He scored four times in his last four, and has four goals in seven Champions League matches this season. Given his form and City's focus on limiting Eden Hazard’s dangerous ability, he presents good value to find the back of the net as well.

Free Picks: Sterling to score anytime (+130); Benzema to score anytime (+170)