Euro 2020: Croatia vs Spain betting odds, preview, and pick

Croatia and Spain both needed wins in their final group games to guarantee a place in the knock-out stages, and although both sides delivered, that is where the comparisons end. Spain put to bed the belief that they are wasteful in front of goal with a 5-0 hammering of Slovakia, while Croatia’s 3-1 win over Scotland relied on a moment of genius from Luka Modric, and did little to paper over some worrying cracks.

Spain are favorites for the game at -167 to win inside 90 minutes and -335 to qualify for the quarter-finals. Croatia are +575 to win inside regulation time and +260 to make it to the final eight.

Spain found their shooting boots

Spain’s journey through Group E was not pretty, despite all three games being played in Sevilla. A 0-0 draw with Poland was swiftly followed by a 1-1 draw with Sweden and the pressure ramped up until they hit five past Slovakia in that final thrashing.

But dig a little deeper into those draws and Spain’s dominance was there to see. Against Sweden they had 85% possession and led the shot count 13-3. Against Poland they had 77% possession and led the shot count 12-5. That big win was coming, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Spain rack up similar numbers here. It’s -125 that they have over 13.5 shots, but I’m more taken by the -118 that they have more shots than Croatia even with a -4.5 handicap.

Croatia rely on aging stars

Croatia were World Cup finalists three years ago, but that feels a long way from where this team are currently. Big goals from their key men have saved them in this tournament so far but 32-year-old Ivan Perisic and 35-year-old Luka Modric are about to play their fourth game in 15 days in three different countries. That’s not easy on any professional, let alone the veterans.

Nobody else in the squad has really excelled, and that is where we can find some interesting prop bets. It’s -182 for Ante Rebic to have under 0.5 shots on target against Spain – he’s had four shots so far in this tournament and only one was on target, while it’s -177 that Andrej Kramaric has under 0.5 shots on target. The 30-year-old has only had two shots in this tournament, and neither found the target.

Two teams in quite different form

Although their group stages look similar, these teams are in very different form. Croatia’s win against Scotland was their only victory in their last five games. Going back further, they’ve won just three of the last 12.

Spain, on the other hand, are unbeaten in 11, winning five and drawing six. The draws are a concern, and point to some questions in front of goal, but the quality of those sides should not be underestimated. Of those 11 games, five of them were against teams in the Last 16 of this competition.

Spain -1 on the Asian Handicap at +107 looks appealing given the respective form of both teams.

Croatia vs. Spain Prediction

Spain’s tendency to be wasteful in front of goal makes me lean towards Under 2.5 goals at -137, but the stats suggest they should still be far too strong for Croatia. The Croatians conceded 30 shots to the opposition during the group stages, compared to Spain conceding just 12, and if the Spanish can keep up the momentum from the Slovakia win, they should make this look easier than the betting suggests.

Euro 2020 pick: Croatia 0-2 Spain (+575)

---

Create your own custom Euro 2020 parlays with our TwinSpires Sports Bet Builder. Learn more here.