Euro 2020: Czech Republic vs. England betting odds, preview, and pick

The winner of Group D will be decided on Tuesday, as the Czech Republic and England square off in Euro 2020 action from Wembley Stadium in London.

The Three Lions are the heavy favorites in the match.

Czechs hoping to shock everyone with group win

After defeating Scotland and drawing with Croatia, the Czech Republic suddenly has an unlikely chance to win Group D. Any result against England would see them pull off a shock result, with the reward being a place in the bottom half of the bracket—albeit against the second-place team from Group F.

Their primary means of attack has been striker Patrick Schick, the tournament’s leading goal-scorer with three, including what will undoubtedly be the goal of the tournament when he scored from near midfield against Scotland. England will need to be very mindful of him on set pieces to avoid conceding a goal against the run of play.

The Czechs have no injury concerns and will likely run the same lineup they have the first two matches as they attempt to win the group. Given they only need a point, they will be expected to park the bus and hope to secure a draw while frustrating England even further.

Southgate needs a win to appease English fans and media

Coming into Matchday 3, no team in the tournament had created more big chances than England after their scoreless 0-0 draw with Scotland. They failed to register a single shot on goal in the first half, a feat they had not accomplished at Wembley in a competitive match in nearly seven years.

The match left England fans angry, and their ire was mostly direct at manager Gareth Southgate for his questionable team selection. Harry Kane registered just 19 touches—eight fewer than their goalkeeper—which was his lowest total for club or country in four years. He also lost the ball 15 times and had the lowest passing completion rate of any player. He will be expected to come out and show an improved performance on Tuesday. 

News broke on Monday afternoon that Ben Chilwell and Mason Mount have tested negative for COVID-19 after coming in close contact with Chelsea teammate and Scotland player Billy Gilmour. However, both are expected to miss the match as a precaution. Many expect to see an injection of pace with Jadon Sancho getting a run-out, and Jack Grealish set to enter the squad after drawing more fouls as a sub than any of the starters against Scotland. Defender Harry Maguire is also in contention to return from injury and start.

Czech Republic vs. England Trends

England have lost just twice in their last 36 matches in the European Championships, including qualifying matches. They have kept a clean sheet in the last five of those matches, but have failed to score more than one goal in any of their last four matches.

The Czechs have just two victories in their last six competitive matches, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their last seven. They have scored multiple goals just twice in their last six, and their last three outings in the Euros and qualifying have seen two or fewer goals scored overall.

In their last three meetings in all competitions, England and the Czech Republic have seen three or more goals scored.

Pressure is mounting for England

Given that the results on Monday ensured that any team with four points is guaranteed to advance, neither side has to worry about the result between Croatia and Scotland. That said, both sides will want to win the group to avoid playing in the top-half of the bracket, where powerhouses Belgium and Italy await along with the winner of Group F.

The Czechs know that a draw sees them through as winners, and will look to sit back and hit on the break. However, England have mountains of pressure on their shoulders, with their fans demanding goals and their manager under fire. With the home fans behind them, they should be able to come out and take care of business.

While there is no value in playing them to win, you can use the TwinSpires Sports Bet Builder to combine England to win with a clean sheet in a low scoring match to get two-to-one odds. As for a player prop, I believe that Kane is due and will get improved service with the lineup changes. Take either he or Raheem Sterling to score via the player specials bet as one of them will find the scoresheet.

Euro 2020 picks: England moneyline plus under 2.5 plus BTTS NO (+205), and Kane or Sterling to score (-139)

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