Euro 2020: England vs. Scotland betting odds, preview, and pick

Local rivals England and Scotland couldn’t have had much different starts to life in Group D. Gareth Southgate’s men put in a polished and professional performance as they dispatched World Cup finalists Croatia 1-0 at Wembley, while Scotland’s first major tournament appearance in 23 years may only be fleeting after a Patrik Schick wondergoal helped the Czech Republic beat the Tartan Army 2-0.

A trip to Wembley to face a bitter rival and one of the tournament favorites is not an enviable task facing Steve Clarke, and Scotland are the big underdogs at +950 to pick up three points. England are -305 for the win, with the draw at +410.

Southgate’s surprisingly dominant defense

There were plenty of question marks over England’s defense when Gareth Southgate initially picked his squad for the tournament. Jordon Pickford had a rocky season between the sticks, Southgate opted for four right-backs, and Harry Maguire wasn’t fit to play centre-back. Yet despite these concerns, England have now won their last seven games and kept a clean sheet in six of them. In fact, Poland’s Jakub Moder is the only man to score against England in the last 12 hours and 15 minutes of action.

Scotland hit the bar against Czech Republic and had another effort clawed off the line by the keeper, but they are far from free flowing. In 16 games across Qualifying and the Nations League, Scotland averaged just 1.3 goals per game, and that drops to 0.93 goals a game when you take out the two matches with lowly San Marino.

England to win to nil at -114 is tempting, more so than backing "no" in both teams to score at -182, but both bets are likely to come in.

A tough nut to crack

Despite their success, England have picked up the bad habit of being a little slow to break down a team. That could be an issue as Steve Clarke’s management style suggests Scotland will come to Wembley to frustrate the Three Lions and try to pinch something on the break.

In the last five games, England have only found the net once from open play in the first 45 minutes, with the three most recent winners against Austria, Romania, and Croatia all coming between the 57th and 67th minute.

It’s +205 to be 0-0 at the break, which is tempting given that over the last 20 years there have been four games between these two sides and 16 goals scored. 75% of those goals came after half-time.

No Pain No Gain for Kane?

Kane leads the betting at +285 to open the scoring on Friday, and the Tottenham man is likely frustrated after not getting a proper look at goal against Croatia. England’s sixth-highest scorer of all time was an early favourite for the Golden Boot but barely touched the ball on Sunday. He got it 26 times (the second-lowest tally of anyone on the pitch who started the game), but couldn’t create a golden chance for himself, and he’ll be chomping at the bit to find the net.

England vs. Scotland Prediction

Expect Scotland to keep England at bay for 45 minutes, but for Kane to open the scoring just after half time and for England go on to win comfortably. The 1-0 correct score is +500 and 2-0 is +460 – I’d lean towards the latter.

Euro 2020 pick: England 2-0 Scotland (+460)

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