Euro 2020: Italy vs. Austria betting odds, preview, and pick

It took Italy 53 minutes to break down a tough Turkish resistance in the opening game of Euro 2020, but Roberto Mancini’s side have not looked back since. A 3-0 beating of the Turks was followed by another 3-0 win against Switzerland, before the Italians saw off Wales 1-0 without ever really getting into top gear.

Now Italy are -200 favorites to win their Last 16 clash in 90 minutes, and -435 to qualify for the quarter-finals. Austria are their opponents after finishing runners-up in Group C. A 2-0 defeat to Netherlands was their only blip, and was sandwiched between a 3-1 win against North Macedonia and a crucial 1-0 against the Ukraine.

Austria are huge outsiders and are +650 to win in 90 minutes and +325 just to qualify for the quarters.

Defense is the best offense

Italy are on an incredible 30 game unbeaten run – last tasting defeat in a 1-0 loss to Portugal in September 2018. But what’s even more astonishing is their defensive record. They have not conceded a goal in 11 matches, and have gone a total of 17-and-a-half hours of football without letting their opponents score.

Austria have failed to score in four of their last six games, which has to be a concern for coach Franco Foda. Bettors can take advantage by backing Austria not to score at -132, but the smarter punt is Italy to win to nil inside 90 minutes at +106.

Italy can get out of the blocks early

The Italians may have struggled to break down Turkey in the opening game, but that is the exception rather than the rule. In nine of their last 11 games they have led at half-time and gone on to win the match.

Austria conceded a goal against North Macedonia within 28 minutes, and were behind against the Netherlands before the clock reached 12 minutes courtesy of Memphis Depay. They are no strangers to picking the ball out of their own net before the break.

It’s +100 that Italy lead at half-time in this clash, and +123 that Italy lead at half-time and win inside 90 minutes.

Immobile can come back with a bang

If Italy do score early, then Austria are going to have to come out and go for it, such is the beauty of knock-out football. That should open up even more gaps for Italy to exploit, and Over 2.5 goals jumps out as a tempting bet at +120.

Ciro Immobile found the back of the net against Turkey and Switzerland before he was rested for the Welsh game, so he comes into this match particularly fresh. He bagged 20 goals for Lazio this season at an average of a goal every 143 minutes, and has already had 10 attempts on goal in the Euros. No player has had as many attempts per game as Immobile.

He’s full of confidence and can feast on a weak Austrian backline at odds of +400 to score first and +148 to find the net at any time.

Italy vs. Austria Prediction

Austria’s Euro 2020 adventure looks to be coming to an end as Italy start dreaming of another title. No team had previously won all their group games without conceding, and they can keep that going here. 2-0 is tempting at +500, but as the game opens up, I think Italy can add another and will take a bet on Italy 3-0 at +850.

Euro 2020 pick: Italy 3-0 Austria (+850)

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