Liverpool vs. Everton odds, preview, and pick

The Merseyside Derby is always must-watch television, but the match takes on even bigger significance this year, as Everton visits Anfield to take on Liverpool with both clubs sitting outside of Champions League positions in the table.

The hosts are large favorites to win the match, with the total sitting at 3.5 goals.

Liverpool looking for revenge

The last time these two teams faced off, Liverpool’s title defense was rudely altered for the worse.

Just five minutes into the 2-2 contest on Oct. 17, Everton keeper Jordan Pickford slid into the legs of Liverpool defender Virgil Van Dijk – considered to be the best center-back in the world – and severely damaged his knee. The play was ruled offside, and Pickford was fortunate to not see a red card for the dangerous tackle.

Later in the match, midfielder Thiago was taken out by a nasty sliding challenge by Toffee forward Richarlison that ruled him out for weeks. Had Thiago’s foot not easily come off the turf, it could well have broken his leg.

Liverpool have not won a Premier League match at Anfield since Dec. 19, having suffered three consecutive defeats at home after not losing in more than three years at their home ground. Their win midweek against RB Leipzig in Champions League was their first victory in all competitions in four matches, and just their fourth in their last thirteen total fixtures.

Ozan Kabak performed very well in central defense on his full debut against Leipzig, and will likely partner with Jordan Henderson, who continues to deputize in midfield during Fabinho’s absence. The Brazilian will miss this match, along with James Milner. They will also still be without Diego Jota in attack and Keita in the midfield. 

Everton hoping to stop their slide

On Boxing Day, the Toffees sat second in the table, just three points back of then-leaders Liverpool with 29 points. In the eight matches since then, they have captured just eight points, with only one victory and one draw in their last five. That draw was a gift, courtesy of a late collapse by Manchester United.

Now they sit seventh in the table, just one point ahead of Tottenham and an Aston Villa side that has a match in hand. More importantly, they are five points out of Champions League, albeit with a match in hand on every team ahead of them.

Everton fell 3-1 to Manchester City in midweek, which is not a bad result given the opponent, but it was their 2-0 defeat at home to Fulham last weekend that had alarm bells ringing around Goodison Park. Everton have not kept a clean sheet in the league since their 1-0 win on Boxing Day over Sheffield United. While Liverpool’s scoring woes in the league are well documented, they still pose a serious threat against Everton’s leaky defense.

The Toffees will be thankful to see the return of striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has missed time with a hamstring injury. Their leading scorer on the season, twelve of his eighteen goals across all competitions have come inside the six-yard area. They also will hope to have the services of Allan, whose ability to transition defense to offense has been sorely missed, and was limited by Liverpool in the reverse fixture.

Trends and free betting advice

Everton are seeking their first victory against Liverpool since 2010—a span of 20 Premier League matches, and 23 meetings across all competitions. It is their longest winless streak against any single opponent in club history. They are also seeking their first win of any kind at Anfield since 1999.

Jurgen Klopp has not lost in his 12 meetings with Everton, and Liverpool have won three and drawn three in the last six Merseyside Derbies. However, they are seeking their first home Premier League victory in two months.

Matches between these two clubs are quite contentious, and the red card in the reverse fixture was the 22nd red card handed out in the last 55 Premier League meetings between the two clubs. Everton also sits second in the league with 41 yellow cards, in addition to two reds. Given what happened in October, the referee may look to ensure from the start that things do not get out of hand, meaning there is good value in betting on a lot of bookings in this match—and perhaps another red card—if the line becomes available on Saturday.

The return of Calvert-Lewin will cause Henderson some problems in defense, and he will look to score in his fourth straight match in all competitions. He scored the late equalizer in the reverse fixture, and he offers good value to do so yet again.

As for the result, neither of these teams are very good. Liverpool’s last clean sheet in the league came more than a month ago against Manchester United, their only such achievement in their last eight league matches. However, as stated earlier, the Toffees have not kept a clean sheet in nearly two months. I like both teams to find the back of the net, with Liverpool taking home the spoils in a 2-1 victory.

Free Picks: Liverpool to win/Both teams to score +195; Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score +235