Serie A futures: Lazio looks to crash Juventus' party

With 14 matches remaining in the Serie A campaign, the title race is closer than it has been in years. This time, though, it’s a three-way race, with Roman outfit Lazio looking to lay claim to the Scudetto for only the third time in the club’s history. Juventus is currently in first place, seeking their eighth consecutive title in Italy’s top flight league, while Inter Milan are close behind, seeking to secure their first domestic league trophy since 2010. Only three points separate first from third in the table. Let’s take a look at the odds for each team to help you determine who to bet on.

Juventus (18 W, 3 D, 3 L, 57 points)

Vegas makes more money on people betting that streaks will end than on any other sports wager. By that mentality, this should be a no brainer. The Old Lady has arguably the best player of his generation in Cristiano Ronaldo. In his last 17 matches across all competitions, Ronaldo has found the back of the net an astounding 22 times. He has scored in 10 consecutive Serie A fixtures, and is pacing a club that features outstanding talent at every position.

Despite Ronaldo's scoring, there is still reason for concern amongst Juventus fans. They lost at Verona in their last league outing, and two matches prior fell to Napoli in a 2-1 defeat. The biggest concern is that nobody else seems to be helping Ronaldo, as he has scored 15 of their 22 total goals during the 10-match run, and in that span they have suffered three defeats and drawn once. That includes a 3-1 loss to Lazio, which has allowed them and Inter to close the gap.

The biggest concern, though, for the Bianconeri is the rotation brought about by playing in multiple competitions. Between Feb. 22 and March 21, Juventus will play eight times across three competitions, including a span of eight days where they travel to Lyon for Champions League, host Inter in Serie A play, and then host AC Milan for the second leg of the Coppa Italia semifinal. With fatigue and preference having to be given to certain matches, it will be tough for them to balance playing time and still ensure results in league play. In my opinion, if Juventus advance in Champions League to the quarterfinals or beyond, it may very well cost them the Serie A title.

Lazio (17 W, 5 D, 2 L, 56 points)

For all of Ronaldo’s exploits, he is not the leader for the Serie A golden boot. That distinction belongs to Lazio forward Ciro Immobile, whose 26 goals pace the league by a wide margin. He scored in Lazio’s pivotal 2-1 defeat of Inter over the weekend, and he has scored nine goals in Lazio’s last eight Serie A matches, assisting another one. He’s getting help, as eleven other goals have been had during that spell, but more importantly the club is not allowing many goals on the other end.

Lazio’s 55 goals are second only to the 63 of Atalanta, and their 21 goals allowed are the fewest conceded in the league, one behind Inter and two behind Juventus. This could be key come the end of the season, as the first tiebreaker is head-to-head results, and the second is goal difference in those matches. If it came to tiebreakers, Lazio and Inter would be tied, which would bring the third tiebreak—goal differential on the season.

While Immobile gets the headlines, it is the play of many key contributors around him that has Lazio flying high at the moment. Midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is in terrific form, and with Luis Alberto and Joaquin Correa setting Immobile up for easy goals, it makes it very difficult to slow them down. It also makes it easier when there is no rotation to be had. Lazio is the only one of the three clubs atop the standings to have only one competition to focus on, having been eliminated from Europa League in December. This has allowed them to secure nine wins and two draws in their last 11 matches, including wins over Juventus, Napoli, and Inter. Their remaining schedule may be tricky for them, however, as their three toughest remaining matches—Atalanta, Juventus, and Napoli—are all away fixtures. That said, Lazio have gone unbeaten in their last eight away in the league, and with no other distractions or obligations, they are poised to be a contender until the end.

Inter Milan (16 W, 6 D, 2 L, 54 points)

Like Juventus, there are three competitions to worry about for Inter Milan. They will have a second leg at Napoli in the Coppa Italia to contend with, but they also have Europa League. Unlike their counterparts in Turin, they will be playing on Thursdays, possibly in some harder-to-reach locations, and that has cost teams a title many times across Europe. Like Juventus, their calendar is very crowded over the next few weeks, as their match at Juventus is sandwiched between their Europa League and Coppa Italia fixtures. However, their schedule is quite manageable in terms of who they will face, as their two remaining tough challenges after Juventus will take place in the final two weeks, when they face Napoli and then travel to Atalanta.

Romelu Lukaku has brought a consistent scoring threat to the blue side of Milan. His 17 goals in league play, and 22 across all competitions have helped offset the loss of Mauro Icardi on loan. The addition of Christian Eriksen has also been a boost, adding much needed depth and playmaking ability to the side. However, neither were able to find the back of the net against Lazio, which saw them fall out of first place in the table down to third. Of the teams in the top three, Inter will likely have more fatigue coming into play, as their depth will be severely tested by Europa League travels, but if they can rest players against bottom-half Serie A sides without any drop-off, they could sneak back into first place and win their first crown in a decade.

Lazio looks like a winner

If you believe in history and that the team with the best talent will always prevail, then betting on Juventus makes the most sense. With Ronaldo scoring at will, and the push for an eighth consecutive Scudetto in full effect, they are the odds-on favorite for a reason.

However, if you believe in solid teamwork and a bit of an underdog, throw your money on Lazio. I believe the title will come down to these two clubs as Inter fades at the end, and with no distractions to deal with, Ciro Immobile and company will cement their names in history and bring home their first league crown since 2000.

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