The best player prop bets for soccer's international break

The Premier League takes another break this weekend, but that opens the door for a feast of international action. While there is a whole slate of World Cup Qualifying fixtures on offer, with a place in Qatar in 2022 at stake, there’s also the small matter of the culmination of the UEFA Nations League.

Spain take on France in a battle between two of the World Cup favorites, while European Champions Italy face Belgium in the third place playoff.

Andorra vs. England: John Stones to score a goal (+400)

England’s trip to Andorra for this World Cup Qualifier may be one of the most lopsided games of the weekend, and therefore throws up a tricky conundrum to find a value bet. England have played Andorra five times in their history, winning all five and never conceding a goal. They’ve won by an average of 4-0, and it’s no surprise to see Harry Kane (-335), Raheem Sterling (-180), and Tammy Abraham (-225) all favored to score.

But there is value in out-of-favor Man City defender John Stones. While Pep Guardiola has decided to start Aymeric Laporte ahead of him at club level, Stones will be England’s senior center back with Harry Maguire on the shelf.

Stones hasn’t scored for his country in three years since bagging twice in the World Cup 2018 against Panama, but The Three Lions and coach Gareth Southgate pride themselves on their threat from set pieces. Harry Maguire has four goals in his last 11 England games, and with him missing out, Stones can step up from corners and free kicks.

Stones bagged five times for Man City last season and is no stranger to finding the back of the net. He could be a value play in what should be a breezy win for England.

Italy vs. Belgium: Romelu Lukaku to score a goal (+188)

He shoots, he scores. It’s as simple as that when Romelu Lukaku is wearing a Belgium jersey.

Since the 2018 World Cup, Lukaku has 28 goals in 26 games for Belgium. Remove the somewhat meaningless friendlies, and his record still reads 19 goals in 17 competitive games. He’s scored in each of Belgium’s last four matches – including finding the net against the Italians at Euro 2020.

Break the numbers down a little more and the statistics are mind-blowing. In competitive games since the World Cup 2018, Lukaku has had 57 shots (3.4 per game) and 29 of them have been on target. That’s an accuracy rate of 51% and 1.7 shots testing the keeper per game.

On top of that, his 19 goals equate to a sky-high 33% conversion rate. But most astonishing of any metric is that if Lukaku has a shot on target, 65% of the time it’s a goal.

Too much math to take in? Keep it simple. If Lukaku shoots, he scores.

Spain vs. France: Ferran Torres to score a goal (+295)

In the biggest game of the weekend, we have a fiercely exciting clash between Spain and France in the Nations League Final. It may only take one goal to decide the tie, and there’s a value play that Ferran Torres will get it.

Torres has dropped out of favor with Pep Guardiola, who has started Gabriel Jesus in recent weeks for Man City, but he is proving a point for the Spanish national team with four goals in his last three games. That includes a brace that secured the win over Italy to get to this final.

Torres is in red-hot form for Spain, and has averaged a goal every 113 minutes for the national team versus a goal every 150 minutes for City. His conversion rate also jumps in his last 20 games for Spain to 17% compared to 14% for City this season.

A sense of national pride possibly, or a different style of play? Whatever it is, Torres is a far better bet to score for Spain than his club, and he can be the difference maker in Sunday’s final.