Super Bowl prop bets: History says 49ers win toss

It’s almost time for the Super Bowl, and as enjoyable as the on-field action is, prop bets are where anyone can get involved and have some fun.

While some of the bets are guesses, and others are such heavy favorites they’re not worth touching, there are some prop bets that have historical trends to guide you.

Opening coin toss outcome

Heads: -105
Tails: -105

A coin toss has a 50-50 chance of winning. Tails has landed 28 times, compared to 25 for heads, but it has also been the correct call in five of the last six Super Bowls. Prior to that, heads won six of seven flips, but that was preceded by a run where tails landed eight of nine times.

The last three Super Bowls have alternated between heads and tails, and if heads won this year, it would be the first time in more than 25 years that the winner alternated in four straight Super Bowls.

NFL free pick: Tails

Player to correctly call opening kickoff coin toss

Yes: -105
No: -105

This might be the one bet I am most confident in. In the Super Bowl, the conferences alternate being the road team. In even-numbered Super Bowls, the NFC team calls the coin toss. In the last 17 even-numbered Super Bowls, the NFC team has correctly picked the winning side of the flip a staggering 14 times. That includes correctly picking five of the last seven opportunities—and the last three Super Bowls, when the Saints, Seahawks, and Giants correctly selected how the coin would land.

Numbers like that tend to stand out, especially when the payout is even on both sides of the betting odds. Don’t overthink it—ride the streak, and bet that the 49ers will properly call the coin flip, especially since they have won the toss four times in their six appearances in the Super Bowl.

NFL free pick: Yes

Chiefs to win coin toss vs. 49ers to win coin toss

Chiefs: -105
49ers: -105

As we discussed in the last section, the NFC team has won 14 of its last 17 coin flips, so I strongly believe that the 49ers are going to do so again. They have won four of the six coin flips they have taken part in, and overall the NFC has won each of the last seven coin flips in the Super Bowl.  

Only one team has won more coin flips in the Super Bowl than San Francisco, and that is the Dallas Cowboys (six). Go with the trend, and take the 49ers to win the flip again.

NFL free pick: 49ers to win toss

Chiefs to win coin toss and the game

Yes: +250
No: -355

Here is where things get a bit tricky. Betting on a team to win the toss and the game is a solid payout, but you first have to decide who you think wins the game. If you think the Chiefs are going to win, as I do, then you have to decide if you want to buck the coin flip trend. You would have to risk a lot of money to go with the numbers and take the Chiefs to lose the flip and win the game, but it might be the highest odds play. The other number to keep in mind is that winning the coin toss is an indication you’re more likely to lose the Super Bowl. Only 24 of the 53 coin toss winners have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the night. If you are willing to lay the big money, odds are "No" is the play here.

NFL free pick: No

49ers to win coin toss and the game

Yes: +300
No: -455

If you believe the 49ers are going to win the game, this is where you can make some big money. As for that stat about the coin toss winner being more likely to lose? Well, you can throw it out. The 49ers have won the Super Bowl all four times the coin landed in their favor. If you’re confident they will take down Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs, throw some cash on "Yes," and flash the cash to your friends when the night is over!

NFL free pick: Yes

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Super Bowl Sunday has finally arrived! Place your wagers before kickoff at BetAmerica.