2024 College Football Playoffs: First Round Best Bets

Indiana at Notre Dame (8 p.m. Friday): Indiana +7.5

The Battle for Indiana features a pair of high-scoring offenses, with the Hoosiers averaging 40.3 points per game and the Irish 39.8 points, and Indiana’s vastly improved defense gives them a chance to be competitive against arguably the nation's best run offense, as Notre Dame has averaged 246.6 rushing yards over the last five games.

Indiana’s Kurtis Roarke injured his thumb late in the second half of the season, missing one game before returning to face Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State in November, and he’s eligible to play better in the playoffs with additional rest. Even though Indiana couldn’t score enough points to stay with Ohio State, they held the Buckeyes to 115 rushing yards, recording more first downs (16-14) than the second-ranked Buckeyes despite being held to 153 total yards, and the Hoosiers shut down Michigan’s mighty run offense, holding the Wolverines to 69 rushing yards to prevail in a low-scoring game.

The Hoosiers held their own up front in those challenging late-season games and will benefit from the experience. They’ll be prepared offensively and hold a significant edge at quarterback, as Notre Dame lost confidence in Riley Leonard during a dreadful loss to Northern Illinois and went to a conservative attack afterward, and Indiana owns the nation’s top-ranked run defense (allowing 76.2 rushing yards per game). The Irish figure to be tested, and we predict a close game that could go either way.

SMU at Penn State (12 p.m. Saturday): Over 54.5 points

Trends favor SMU (7-3 ATS last 10 games); Penn State 0-3 ATS versus ranked teams this year and it’s always difficult to trust a James Franklin-coached offense in big games. However, Penn State has gone Over in four of the last five games, and the Nittany Lions are eligible to pile up points versus an outsized SMU defensive front.

SMU was not prepared for Clemson’s size in the ACC Championship, falling behind 24-7 at halftime, but Kevin Jennings showed why he’s one of the nation’s best quarterbacks in the second half, winding up with 310 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown. The Mustangs wound up with 458 total yards, losing on a last-second field goal after tying it up late in the fourth quarter, and they can score points in bunches. Penn State will probably prove too much in the end, but we won’t lay more than a touchdown in a projected high-scoring game.

Clemson at Texas (4 p.m. Saturday): Under 51.5

Clemson has gone Under eight times this year and since a surprising home loss to Louisville where they dominated time of possession, first downs, third-down conversions, and total yards but were outscored, the Tigers have become very opportunistic defensively, forcing multiple turnovers in each of the last five games (12 total), including four against bowl teams, and recording a +7 turnover margin. Their improved defense is eligible to have more success against Texas, which has been giving away the ball late in the season, recording multiple turnovers in each of the last three games. 

Since returning from injury, Quinn Ewers has struggled to find his form, but the Longhorns remain formidable defensively and Clemson’s inability to run the ball against good defenses looms as a major liability. They won’t be able to stay with Texas offensively, but Clemson held South Carolina’s dynamic offense to seven points through three quarters in their penultimate game and led SMU 24-7 at halftime by slowing down their explosive offense in the ACC Championship. The Under looks very possible.

Tennessee at Ohio State (8 p.m. Saturday): Tennessee +7.5

The Vols are the best bet of the week. This line reflects how Ohio State performed earlier in the season when the Buckeyes lost faith in quarterback Will Howard down the stretch and scored only 54 combined points in three of the last four games versus teams with a winning record, defeating Nebraska 21-17 and Penn State 20-13 and losing 13-10 to Michigan. The Buckeyes put up more points versus Indiana due to a pair of big plays on special teams, with the Hoosiers limiting them to 114 rushing yards and only 14 first downs, and their offense exits a pedestrian performance in the Big 10 championship, gaining only 77 rushing yards as Howard went 19-for-33 for 175 passing yards, two interceptions, and a touchdown. 

Tennessee has the size up front to match Ohio State, ranking eighth nationally in run defense (101.9 rushing yards allowed per game). And while Ohio State’s offensive line is banged up, the Vols have gotten healthier in recent weeks, especially quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who will be poised to showcase his skills behind an explosive offense. This season, the Buckeyes are 4-4 ATS at home, 1-2 ATS vs non-conference foes, and they’ve performed below par vs SEC competition over the last decade, 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games. The Vols are 3-1 ATS versus ranked opponents this season, and if they keep Ohio State’s run game in check, Tennessee will advance to the next round. We love the points!

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