Big Ten football picks: #8 Penn State vs. #2 Ohio State & 5 more

With conference and national championship implications on the line in Columbus, games don’t get much bigger than the showdown between Ohio State and Penn State this week.

#8 Penn State at #2 Ohio State (-19), noon ET, FOX

I get that Ohio State has obliterated its competition all season, with an average margin of victory of 41.7 points, but this line is entirely too high. This Penn State squad is undoubtedly the most talented team on the Buckeyes schedule this year, and the Nittany Lions have played OSU incredibly tough over the last several years. The last three games between these two conference rivals have been decided by a total of five points.

Don't get me wrong. I think Justin Fields (who originally committed to Penn State in high school), the underrated Mack truck that is J.K. Dobbins, the unblockable Chase Young and the rest of the talented Buckeyes have made a convincing case as the best team in the country. But they have yet to be even remotely tested. The test comes this week.

The questionable status of PSU wide receiver KJ Hamler is a definite concern, but head coach James Franklin has stuffed the cupboard full of talent at Penn State, and with everything on the line this week, I’m betting we get another great ballgame.

Pick: Penn State +19

#13 Michigan (-9.5) at Indiana, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

These two teams have improved the most in conference as the season has progressed.

Michigan has finally found some offensive rhythm behind a strong run game and a quarterback who is coming off a career-best game against Michigan State. However, with the hated Buckeyes looming large next week, the Wolverines will be challenged to keep their focus on the challenge at hand this week.

Indiana's success can mostly be attributed to junior quarterback Peyton Ramsey, who has saved Indiana’s season by playing some of the best ball in the league at the QB position. The Hoosiers stubbornly stuck around all game on the road at Penn State last week and I expect them to do the same this weekend.

Pick: Indiana +9.5

#10 Minnesota (-14) at Northwestern, noon ET, ABC

We’ll have to wait another week for the showdown between Minnesota and Wisconsin, but in the meantime, I fully expect the Gophers to bounce back from their first loss of the season to Iowa and respond with a convincing win against a pathetic Northwestern team.

Pick: Minnesota -14

Purdue at #12 Wisconsin (-24.5), 4 p.m. ET, FOX

Jeff Brohm has once again shown himself to be one of the best young coaches in the country this season. With a roster depleted by injuries, Brohm has pieced this Purdue team together with band-aids, duct tape and a walk-on QB who originally committed to play at Division III Wheaton College.

The Boilermakers have fought admirably to try to get bowl eligible, but I expect the underwhelming Badgers to be all business this weekend, with the huge game against Minnesota looming. Purdue will struggle to stop the run, and Wisconsin is at its best when Jonathan Taylor is leading the way.

Pick: Wisconsin -24.5

Illinois at #17 Iowa (-15.5), noon ET, Big Ten Network

Illinois has been an underdog in six of its seven conference games this year, and the Illini have been an average underdog of 17.8 points in those six games. Powered by coach Lovie Smith's majestic white beard, Illinois has gone 5-1 ATS in those games and has won three of them outright. And with Iowa in a letdown spot after a big win over Minnesota and Illinois riding a huge wave of confidence as a result of its current four-game win streak, I’ll stick with the formula and gladly take the Illini plus the points.

Pick: Illinois +15.5

Nebraska (-5) at Maryland, 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network

It’s Scott Frost vs. Mike Locksley. I have no choice but to take Nebraska. If you need more convincing, the Huskers need two wins to get bowl eligible, and after Maryland this week, they'll wrap up the regular season with Iowa at home. This young Nebraska team needs a bowl game to help in its development, so I think the Cornhuskers will figure out a way to win by at least a touchdown.

Pick: Nebraska -5

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