Justin Fields vs. Trevor Lawrence: Predictions for 2020

As sophomores, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields and Clemson's Trevor Lawrence ruled the 2019 college football season.

Fields, a transfer from Georgia, carried Ohio State to a 13-1 record, with the Buckeyes only defeat coming to Clemson in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Lawrence experienced the only loss of his college career in the CFP National Championship Game against LSU.

Heading into 2020, Fields is a slight favorite over Lawrence to win the Heisman Trophy. Let’s examine these two QBs and predict their 2020 performances.  

Stat comparison

In Fields’ first season at Ohio State, he exploded as a dual-threat star. His Buckeyes beat opponents by an average margin of 33.1 points, which led the nation. Fields registered five games with four touchdown passes, and he led his team to five victories over ranked opponents.

He only tossed one interception during the regular season. Against Clemson in the semifinal, he got picked off twice, including on Ohio State’s final play of the game, after a Buckeyes receiver missed his route.

Lawrence’s season didn’t start off quite as strong. Following his national championship campaign as a freshman, he suffered through a sophomore slump the first half of 2019. He threw a pair of interceptions in three different games and eight by Week 9, but he never tossed another pick from there.

Lawrence’s passer rating improved from 155.6 through the first eight weeks of the season, to 222.3 from Week 9 through the ACC Championship Game. His completion percentage was 76% for the second half of the season, compared to 65.2% through the first half.

In the College Football Playoff, Lawrence’s numbers dropped off again against stiffer competition. The only ranked opponent Clemson faced all season, before the playoff, was No. 12 Texas A&M in Week 2.

Team changes in 2020

Ohio State offense

The Buckeyes featured one of the most efficient offenses in the country in 2019, behind Fields’ exceptional play and running back J.K. Dobbins’ dominance in the backfield.

Dobbins (2,003 rushing yards, 21 rushing touchdowns) is headed to the NFL, and Master Teague (789 yards, 4 TDs) should see a majority of the carries in 2020.

The receiving corps also lost seniors K.J. Hill (636 yards, 10 TDs) and Binjimen Victor (545 yards, 6 TDs), but leading receiver Chris Olave (849 yards, 12 TDs) can’t jump to the pros until 2021.

Olave and sophomore Garrett Wilson (432 yards, 5 TDs) lead the pack in 2020 and will gain a handful of talented teammates through recruiting.

Most importantly, the offensive line is mostly intact. Left guard Jonah Jackson and Brandon Bowen are out at left guard and right tackle, but the Buckeyes will have left tackle Thayer Munford, center Josh Myers, and right guard Wyatt Davis back. Right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere and left guard Enokk Vimahi are expected to start alongside them.

Clemson offense

Lawrence and all-time leading Clemson rusher Travis Etienne are back for one more season, but much of their offensive line has departed.

The only returning starter from 2019 is left tackle Jackson Carman, a third-team All-ACC selection. The remaining spots on the line could be filled by redshirt junior Matt Bockhorst and redshirt sophomore Jordan McFadden, plus some of the six scholarship offensive line signees from the Tigers' No. 3 recruiting class.

Leading Clemson receiver Tee Higgins (1,167 yards, 13 TDs), a future 2020 NFL Draft pick, is also gone. Junior Justyn Ross (865 yards, 8 TDs) and senior Amari Rodgers (426 yards, 4 TDs) will step into larger roles to help fill Higgins’ absence.

Lawrence will also see a change at offensive coordinator, after co-coordinator Jeff Scott fled to South Florida. Tony Elliott will take full command of the offense in 2020.

Strength of schedule

The Buckeyes played one of the more difficult schedules in 2019, while Clemson cake-walked through the ACC. The story is the same in 2020. Ohio State faces sturdy competition in the Big Ten, including matchups against Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, and Iowa. The Buckeyes also play Oregon on the road in Week 2.

Picking Clemson’s most challenging conference game is difficult, as they'll confront a mediocre Atlantic Division in the ACC. A road game at Florida State, under first-year head coach Mike Norvell, might be tricky, and Wake Forest could play spoiler in late November. In non-conference play, the Tigers head to Notre Dame on Nov. 7 and host South Carolina in their final regular-season contest. Akron and the Citadel are gimmes on the schedule.

Will Fields or Lawrence achieve the better season?

Lawrence started off sluggish in 2019, and you can expect the same in 2020, as he adjusts to a different group of linemen in front of him. Fields should get his season into high gear in the home opener, just as he did last year against Florida Atlantic.

The only concern with Ohio State’s QB is his durability. A sprained MCL limited his mobility from late November on, but an offseason of rehab should have him back to full strength at the start of the season.

If Fields can stay healthy throughout 2020, he'll exceed his production from last season, collect the Heisman, and may earn a national championship along the way.