Music City Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Louisville preview and pick

Mississippi State and Louisville moved in opposite directions for most of the 2019 football season, but they ultimately ended up in the same place and will face off Monday, December 30 at the Music City Bowl in Nashville.

Mississippi State vs. Louisville, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Bulldogs ended the season on a high note

Mississippi State had high (if unfounded) preseason hopes, coming off an 8-5 campaign and entering the second year of Joe Moorhead’s regime, but the team largely disappointed. The Bulldogs lost an early non-conference game against Kansas State and made no noise whatsoever in the SEC West.

Rumors swirled that Moorhead would be fired or worse (leave for Rutgers? Gasp!), but the Bulldogs ended the year on an upbeat note when they knocked off Ole Miss in an Egg Bowl thriller.

Louisville’s season was largely a success. The Cardinals were coming off a nightmare 2-10 campaign and had little to no expectations for 2019. Yet the Cardinals defeated quality Wake Forest and Virginia teams, before they were absolutely crushed by rival Kentucky.

Mississippi State will have trouble containing Atwell

Now that Moorhead is staying put and the early signing period is over, both teams can focus on winning this bowl matchup. Mississippi State was outscored by 0.5 points per game and outgained 0.02 in yards per play. Louisville was outscored by 1.1 PPG and was +0.25 in YPP. The Bulldogs faced the tougher schedule, so their numbers are better when adjusted for strength of opponent.

Each team has played multiple quarterbacks. Mississippi State’s combo of Garrett Shrader and Tommy Stevens look like the better running duo, but I’d grant the passing edge to Louisville’s Micale Cunningham and Evan Conley.

Each team features two running backs, as well. You can’t go wrong with either duo (Kylin Hill and Nick Gibson for MSU, Javian Hawkins and Hassan Hall for Louisville). At wide receiver, however, see a large advantage for Louisville. Chatarius "Tutu" Atwell has been one of the most electric pass catchers in the country this year (61 receptions, 1,129 yards, 12 touchdowns). The Cardinals’ No. 2 wideout, Dez Fitzpatrick, would be Mississippi State’s leading receiver by more than 200 yards.

In the trenches Mississippi State sports the No. 6 offensive line and the No. 80 defensive line, according to Football Outsiders. Louisville is quite weak on the line of scrimmage, with the No. 90 offensive line and No. 100 defensive line. Can Louisville do anything to stop the Bulldogs from simply lining up and running the ball? In their regular season finale, Kentucky ran 40 times for 517 yards and six touchdowns. Mississippi State leaned heavily on the run this year and rushed the ball on 63% of its snaps.

Linebacker looks like a wash. Leo Lewis is a blue chipper for MSU, and he pairs nicely with Erroll Thompson, but I really like the activity of C.J. Avery, Rodjay Burns and Dorian Etheridge for Louisville. Neither team is that good against the pass. I will give the edge to the Bulldogs, though, as the Cardinals surrendered a 4-1 touchdown-interception ratio.

Louisville has an edge in the return game

On special teams Louisville is effective in both punt and kick returns and the Bulldogs might not have the legs to offset either (they're around the national average in punting and get touchbacks on less than 30% of kickoffs). With Blanton Creque out for the season, though, the Cardinals might cost themselves some points in the kicking game.

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield and defensive coordinator Bryan Brown must shore up the run defense or the Cardinals will have no chance. Assuming they can find some answers with plenty of time to prepare, I like Louisville in a lot of other areas.

The Cardinals will still have a bad taste in their mouth from their rivalry game, whereas the Bulldogs might feel like their season has already been capped. Louisville has 57 lettermen returning from the 2018 disaster, including 25 seniors, and I think they have too much fight and resolve to have their season be defined by another dud performance.

NCAAF free pick: Louisville +4.5

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