NCAAF Friday night pick: USC vs. Colorado

Clay Helton’s USC Trojans will continue their roller-coaster season Friday in Boulder, Colorado, where they will try to keep Mel Tucker’s Buffaloes at bay and remain atop the PAC-12 South Division standings.

USC at Colorado, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2

There are two areas to investigate. The first is to decide just how banged up USC is—and the second is to analyze if Colorado will be able to pass the ball. Let’s jump right in.

USC injury report

RB Vavae Malepeai – OUT RB Markese Stepp – OUT RB Stephen Carr – DOUBTFUL WR Munir McClain – OUT OL Andrew Vorhees – OUT DL Drake Jackson – QUESTIONABLE DL Christian Rector – QUESTIONABLE LB Palaie Gaoteote IV – QUESTIONABLE LB Abdul-Malik McClain – QUESTIONABLE DB Greg Johnson – QUESTIONABLE DB Olaijah Griffin – QUESTIONABLE

That’s an extensive list, which includes USC's top three rushers and a starting lineman on the offensive side, and two of the four defensive-line starters, a starting linebacker and two of the top six defensive backs on the other side of the ball. Safety Talanoa Hufanga also injured his shoulder in last week's game but isn't listed on the injury report. If half of the questionables are inactive, there will be some substantial holes to fill—even for a roster as talented as USC’s. Assuming Stephen Carr does not play, the lone scholarship running back remaining is Kenan Christon, and he was dynamite against Arizona (eight carries, 103 yards, two touchdowns). USC should still be able to run the ball a bit. Colorado has surrendered 14 rushing TDs this year and at least one to every opponent played.

Can Colorado move the ball through the air?

The other key dynamic in this game is whether Colorado will be able to pass the ball. This is important, because in every game where the Buffs threw for more than 220 yards and two touchdowns, they have either won outright or lost by seven points or fewer. In their last two losses (45-3 at Oregon and 41-10 at Washington State), the Buffaloes have thrown for a total of 272 yards, with seven interceptions and no touchdowns.

I am of the opinion senior quarterback Steven Montez is a lot better player than he has shown in the last two games. USC will score often, but I look for Montez and his receiving corps to answer many of those scores.

The all-time series record between these teams is 13-0 USC. That mark should move to 14-0, but Colorado will make things interesting against the depleted Trojans.

Pick: Colorado +13.5

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