3 National League win totals you need to pounce on right now

BetAmerica is getting ready for the return of America's national pastime with a full slate of Major League Baseball win totals. We've examined the projections for all 30 MLB teams and have identified three that present enormous value to bettors.

New York Mets (86.5)

The Mets eschewed spending big on free agents and attempted to fortify a roster that won 86 games last year with scrap heap pickups. Their ominous hiring-and-firing of manager Carlos Beltran aside, 2020 does not hold much promise for the secondary New York ballclub.

Other than back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, the Mets’ rotation holds more questions than answers. Will Noah Syndergaard finally live up to his promise? Was Marcus Stroman’s mediocre finish to 2019 in New York an aberration or will he continue to struggle? Can offseason pickups Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello bounce back or are they over the hill? The absence of Zack Wheeler, who walked over to division-rival Philadelphia, could be keenly felt in Queens.

New York’s bullpen provided more angst than relief in 2019, producing the fifth-worst ERA in baseball. Even if new acquisition Dellin Betances picks up where he left off in 2018 following an injury-plagued 2019 that saw him make just one appearance for the Yankees, he can’t make up for poor performances from Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Robert Gsellman, who are once again slated to have major roles in this unit.

The Mets’ Pete Alonso-led offense, 13th in runs per game last year, doesn’t have enough ability to make up for their defensive deficiencies (29th in defensive runs saved in 2019).

MLB free pick: Under

Cincinnati Reds (83.5)

The Reds were one of the unluckiest teams in baseball by Pythagorean Expectation in 2019, finishing at minus-5. These things tend to equal out year-over-year, and the way Cincinnati spent this offseason will go a long way in improving that performance.

Picking up both Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama gives the Reds four reliable outfielders for 2020, with Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel still in the fold. Mike Moustakas was signed away from division-rival Milwaukee, giving Cincinnati power up the middle to go with corner infielders Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez.

Depth could be an issue in the Reds’ infield with Freddy Galvis looking like he’ll be the everyday shortstop, but this shouldn’t stop them from winning 84 games. Cincinnati’s solid rotation, led by Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, is capable of keeping their team in every game. The Reds should get a full season out of 2019 mid-year acquisition Trevor Bauer, and Wade Miley was a bargain pickup to help fill things out. Cincinnati brings back most of the meaningful pieces from their bullpen, which was seventh in batting average against in 2019, back for 2020, including closer Raisel Iglesias.

MLB free pick: Over

Milwaukee Brewers (83.5)

Oddsmakers are envisioning a down year for the Brewers, winners of 89 games in 2019, and it looks like they’ll be correct.

Milwaukee, eight games lucky in 2019 per Pythagorean Expectation, will once again lack an ace in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser, who combined to toss just 234 innings in 2019, are expected to anchor the pitching staff with offseason pickup Brett Anderson (3.89 ERA in Oakland last year). There is very little depth behind them after the trade that sent Zach Davies to San Diego for utility man Luis Urias. A similar conundrum awaits manager Craig Counsell in the bullpen, as he has few reliable options aside from Josh Hader.

The addition of Avisail Garcia to the outfield made little sense for the Brewers, who already boast Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Ryan Braun. Letting Moustakas walk to Cincinnati was even more nonsensical. An upgrade on the left side of the infield would have been prudent, as shortstop Orlando Arcia and a third base platoon of Eric Sogard and Jedd Gyorko are expected to be utilized on a daily basis.

MLB free pick: Under

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