Gerrit Cole favored to lead MLB in wins and strikeouts
April 28th, 2020
Expectations are through the roof for Gerrit Cole’s first season in pinstripes, as the Yankees’ new ace is favored to lead MLB in wins (+600) and strikeouts (+250).
Let's dive into both markets, to determine if bettors should eat the chalk or look elsewhere for value.
Odds to lead MLB in wins
| Player | Odds |
|---|
Gerrit Cole | +600 |
Walker Buehler | +1000 |
Max Scherzer | +1200 |
Justin Verlander | +1200 |
Stephen Strasburg | +1400 |
Justin Verlander, the 2019 AL Cy Young Award winner, led the majors in wins last season (21), but Cole was close behind (20).
However, Cole was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Astros’ sign-stealing scam at home games last year. He won 12 of his 17 starts at Minute Maid Park in 2019, but only eight of his 16 starts elsewhere. Cole’s numbers may suffer if he pitches at neutral sites all year long.
Last night, the @Dodgers' Walker Buehler pitched his first complete game and struck out 16 - the most in @MLB this season.
— MLB Players Media (@MLBPlayersMedia) June 22, 2019
In June he's 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA, 42 Ks and 1 BB. 👀
Who is @buehlersdayoff? Here's who. 👇 pic.twitter.com/tRwUEjqVPz
The upcoming season could be a coming-out party for the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler (+1000).
He was sharp in his first full MLB season in 2019. He had a 14-4 record in 30 starts (182 1/3 innings), with a 3.26 ERA and 1.042 WHIP.
Los Angeles has turned into a perennial title contender, and its offseason addition of Mookie Betts should only solidifying that standing. Cody Bellinger and the rest of the Dodgers lineup should give Buehler plenty of run support.
Odds to lead MLB in wins
| Player | Odds |
|---|
Gerrit Cole | +600 |
Walker Buehler | +1000 |
Max Scherzer | +1200 |
Justin Verlander | +1200 |
Stephen Strasburg | +1400 |
Cole was the MLB leader in strikeouts a year ago, when he fanned 326 batters.
However, of the top 10 pitchers by strikeouts in 2019, Max Scherzer (+650) has the highest 162-game average in that department (254). Scherzer led the majors in strikeouts in 2016 and 2018, and led the National League in 2017. He would have had more than 243 strikeouts in 2019, but injuries limited him to 27 starts. The normally reliable Nationals ace should be able to take on a full workload in 2020.
This was just STUPID.
— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) July 10, 2019
99mph from Jacob deGrom followed by a FILTHY 94mph slider.
UNREAL. #AllStarGame pic.twitter.com/HM45d1C9FX
Another live underdog in this market is back-to-back NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (+1000).
He led the NL in strikeouts in 2019 (255) and has averaged 250 strikeouts per 162-game season over his six-year career.
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