Gerrit Cole favored to win first AL Cy Young Award in 2021

For the second straight season, New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole is the +350 favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. He closed as a prohibitive first-choice to win the hardware for the first time in 2020, but he ultimately fell short, running into the buzzsaw that was Cleveland Indians ace Shane Bieber, the +400 second-choice to repeat as a Cy Young winner.

So can Cole right the ship in 2021? Let’s start diving into his résumé and find out.  

Cole didn’t dazzle in first year in New York

Many were expecting Cole to either duplicate or build on the incredible 2019 campaign he had in Houston in his first year with the Yankees. Cole went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and an MLB-leading 326 strikeouts in his final year with the Astros, missing out on the AL Cy Young Award by just a few votes to then-teammate Justin Verlander.

Instead, Cole was a bit slow out of the blocks and finished 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA – not bad by any means, but certainly not Cy Young-worthy. He saw noticeable declines in FIP (2.64 in 2019 to 3.89), WHIP (0.895 to 0.959), and strikeouts per nine innings (13.8 to 11.6).

Yankees ace closed strong in small sample size

Cole’s 2020 Cy Young campaign was pretty much done by September, as he was 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA at the end of August. But the way he closed out the year offered hope for Bombers fans in 2021.

Cole allowed only three earned runs over his final four starts of the regular season, pitching seven strong innings on three occasions. In three postseason outings, he was 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA, compiling 30 strikeouts compared to just four walks.

Those who followed Cole closely in 2019 weren't surprised by how much stronger he got as the season wore on. He was a modest 4-5 with a 4.11 ERA through his first 11 starts before going on an otherworldly run – 16-0 with a 1.78 ERA – over his final 22 regular-season outings.

He didn’t flame out in the playoffs either – he went 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA in five appearances, though his club ultimately lost to the Washington Nationals in the World Series.

Can Bieber bottle 2020 performance?

Even if Cole had been in peak form from start to finish in 2020, it would have been hard to beat Bieber. He took the rare pitching triple crown – wins (eight), ERA (1.63) and strikeouts (122) – en route to a unanimous Cy Young score.  

Regression is possible for Bieber – just look at his disastrous lone playoff start against the Yankees (seven earned runs allowed over 4 2/3 innings) – but he would have to fall off the table to not be a contender for consecutive Cy Young triumphs. Bieber is the one Cole has to beat in the AL.