MLB picks: Braves vs. Red Sox, Padres vs. Rockies

It’s a fairly light MLB schedule this Monday, but we’ve managed to find two solid wagering opportunities on the diamond. We’ll handicap the series opener between the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox, followed by the finale between the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies.

Atlanta Braves (19-14) at Boston Red Sox (12-22), 7:30 p.m. ET

Bettors should not overthink this one – NL Cy Young frontrunner Max Fried will match up with one of the worst teams in baseball as his Braves visit the Red Sox at Fenway Park on Monday night. Atlanta looks like an easy winner here.

Fried (5-0, 1.35 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) has the advantage of having never faced Boston before. They won’t know exactly what to expect from the California native in this one. The Red Sox offense has been far from dynamic in 2020 – they rank 17th in runs per game at 4.68.

Meanwhile, Colten Brewer will be first-up as Boston manager Ron Roenicke tries to string together 27 outs against a Braves lineup that’s seventh in runs per game in 2020 (5.12). Brewer (0-2, 4.57 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) and the 25th-ranked Red Sox bullpen (5.39 ERA) are unlikely to be very effective. Bettors should expect Atlanta first baseman Freddie Freeman, riding a 13-game hitting streak, to have another productive evening.

MLB pick: Braves runline

San Diego Padres (21-15) at Colorado Rockies (17-17), 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

All signs point to another offensive free-for-all taking place at Coors Field on Monday night as the top-rated Padres lineup (5.69 runs per game) squares off with the Rockies and their ninth-rated lineup (4.94 runs per game).

German Marquez, starting for Colorado in this one, delivered three straight quality starts to begin his 2020 campaign. But the wheels have come off in his last two outings – his ERA is 11.70 in that span. Marquez will want to pitch carefully to San Diego third baseman Manny Machado, who is 6-for-12 all-time against him and has six hits in this series already.

Once Marquez is removed, the Rockies' putrid bullpen (9.13 ERA last seven days, 29th in the majors) will be asked to get outs against Fernando Tatis Jr. and the rest of the Padres’ recently-bolstered lineup which now includes former Mariners catcher Austin Nola.

Garrett Richards will toe the rubber for San Diego in this one, looking to shake off a dreadful start on Thursday against the Mariners in which he allowed six earned runs and failed to finish the first inning. His 5.17 ERA and 1.53 WHIP for the season do not inspire confidence against a Colorado lineup that can hit with the best of them. Look for third baseman Nolan Arenado, who’s finally playing like his old self after going 11-for-22 at the plate last week, to have another fine performance.

MLB pick: Over