MLB picks: Cubs vs. Pirates, Indians vs. Royals

A pair of divisional matchups yield our best bets on the diamond for Tuesday night. We’ll look at the NL Central battle between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park before previewing the AL Central clash between the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium.

Chicago Cubs (20-14) at Pittsburgh Pirates (10-22), 7:05 p.m. ET

Bettors should expect a fairly low-scoring game, especially early, when the Cubs and Pirates kick off a three-game series at PNC Park on Tuesday night.

Jon Lester will be on the hill for Chicago, and he appears to have righted the ship after consecutive poor starts against the Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers in which he allowed six combined home runs. In his latest outing against the Detroit Tigers, Lester held the opposition to one run – and no homers – over five frames. The Washington native stymied Pittsburgh’s lineup on Aug. 2, giving up just one earned run over six innings of work. The Pirates have not improved since, as they’re tied for 28th in runs per game this season (4.00).

Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh’s de facto ace at the moment, counters in this spot. Kuhl (1-1, 2.52 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) has been particularly effective at home in 2020, producing a 1.42 ERA and .140 opponent batting average over three appearances (12 2/3 innings). The Cubs are a modest 16th in runs per game this season at 4.74.

Do not let these teams’ respective relief corps compromise this total wager late – the Pirates are 23rd in bullpen ERA (5.09) while the Cubs are 27th (5.42) – head to the first five innings market instead.

MLB pick: Under first five innings

Cleveland Indians (21-14) at Kansas City Royals (14-21), 8:05 p.m. ET

Some bettors may be reticent to back the Indians – 25th in runs per game (4.09) – on the run line, but Tuesday night’s matchup with the Royals looks like a great spot to do so based on the starting pitching matchup.

Promising prospect Zach Plesac will be on the mound for his first start since violating Cleveland’s COVID-19 protocol. He’s 1-1 in three starts in 2020 with a scant 1.29 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. Plesac can rely on a stingy Indians bullpen that’s third in ERA this season (2.63). Kansas City’s offense is even worse than the Indians’ – 26th at 4.03 runs per game – so look for them to flounder throughout.

Matt Harvey, trying desperately to revive his career, counters for the Royals. He’s been nothing short of awful in his first two starts of 2020, producing an 11.12 ERA and 2.29 WHIP. Kansas City’s bullpen, sans Trevor Rosenthal, will likely have to work overtime in this one. Expect Cleveland’s bats to propel the team to an early lead and never look back.

MLB pick: Indians run line