MLB picks: Mariners vs. Red Sox, Mets vs. Cubs

There are eight baseball games for bettors to choose from this Thursday, but we’ve selected two to discuss that feature our best bets for the evening.

Leading off is the series opener between the Seattle Mariners and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Then we move on to the series finale between the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Seattle Mariners (11-7) at Boston Red Sox (12-7), 7:10 p.m. ET

The total is elevated for this one, but Under bettors shouldn’t be scared off.

The Mariners will send Justin Dunn to the mound. After allowing eight walks in his initial start of 2021 against the Chicago White Sox, Dunn surrendered only two free passes in five quality innings against the Baltimore Orioles. His control issues should not be exploited by the Red Sox, who are 22nd in walks drawn this season.

Backing up Dunn is an outstanding Seattle bullpen that hasn’t allowed an earned run since April 14.

Nick Pivetta, countering for Boston, has also suffered some control issues in 2021 (11 walks over 14 2/3 innings). But his ERA remains a respectable 3.68.

Fortunately for Pivetta, the Mariners are just 19th in drawing walks this season, and 13th in OPS with runners on base. He’ll also be supported by a Red Sox relief corps that’s ranked fifth by ERA (2.86) this year.

MLB pick: Under

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New York Mets (7-6) at Chicago Cubs (8-9), 7:40 p.m. ET

Mets and Cubs fans saw the back of their bullpens for a large part of Wednesday’s blowout 16-4 victory for Chicago. Now they’ll be looking at the bottom of their respective rotations as New York’s Joey Lucchesi and the Cubs’ Trevor Williams lock horns. Bettors should expect plenty of runs to be scored.

Lucchesi’s first start of the season was not inspiring, albeit it came at Coors Field. He allowed three runs in only three innings of work. Wrigley doesn’t offer much hope for Lucchesi on Thursday, as the wind is blowing out and he’s produced a 7.20 ERA in two prior efforts there.

Javier Baez, who may have broken out of a slump with a grand slam on Wednesday, is 5-for-6 against Lucchesi with two homers and five RBI.

The Mets’ bullpen has been a liability for most of 2021, as they’re ranked 28th in WHIP (1.59).

Williams has not fared much better at “the friendly confines” over his career, producing a 5.93 ERA in 10 starts. He’ll have to pitch carefully to Michael Conforto, who’s 4-for-11 (.364) all-time against him with a home run.

The Chicago relief corps is a modest 23rd in WHIP (1.41) on the campaign.

MLB pick: Over