MLB picks: Marlins vs. Blue Jays, Nationals vs. Braves

It’s another busy day on the diamond this Wednesday, but we’ve narrowed things down to our two favorite wagers of the evening!

First we’ll highlight a matchup between the Miami Marlins and the Toronto Blue Jays. Then we’ll discuss a meeting between the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves.

Miami Marlins (24-29) at Toronto Blue Jays (28-25), 7:07 p.m. ET

A veteran starter on a solid run and a promising rookie twirler should help Under bettors cash at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY on Wednesday night as the Marlins visit the Blue Jays.

Miami’s Pablo Lopez has a 2.40 ERA and a 0.947 WHIP in his last three starts (19 innings), bolstered by 16 strikeouts. He’s never faced Toronto before, which gives Lopez the advantage over the opposing hitters.  

Alek Manoah counters for the Blue Jays, and the club’s No. 5 overall prospect dazzled in his debut last Thursday, shutting out the New York Yankees over six innings. He scattered two hits and two walks while striking out seven, and could be poised for a similar outing against a weaker Marlins lineup.

Both bullpens rank in the Top 10 by ERA this season, so those units should do their part in preserving the Under.  

MLB pick: Under

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Washington Nationals (22-29) at Atlanta Braves (25-27), 7:20 p.m. ET

Bettors should expect a slugfest at Truist Park on Wednesday night as southpaws Jon Lester and Drew Smyly square off.

Lester is pitching on short rest with Erick Fedde unavailable. This is obviously a rare occurrence, but the limited stats on Lester with three or fewer days of rest are not encouraging; he owns a 4.91 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in two such starts (11 innings). Look for Ozzie Albies to be a difference-maker for Atlanta, as he’s 7-for-9 (.778) lifetime against Lester with a home run.

Smyly will take on a Washington lineup that’s sixth in OPS against lefties in 2021 (.770). Pitching at home will offer Smyly no solace, as he’s 0-1 with a 7.80 ERA there. He’s served up seven home runs at Truist Park in only 15 innings of work this year.

Expect Starlin Castro and Yan Gomes – 10-for-29 (.345) combined off Smyly with five extra-base hits – to be key contributors for the Nationals.

Neither bullpen has been particularly effective of late, each ranking in the bottom half by ERA over the last two weeks. Trend bettors should note that the Over is 11-1-2 in the Nats’ last 14 road games against left-handed starters, and 21-9-2 in the Braves’ last 32 home games.

MLB pick: Over