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mlb

Monday MLB preview: Braves at Nationals, Blue Jays at Royals

Robert Criscola

July 29th, 2019

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Atlanta Braves (62-44) at Washington Nationals (56-49), 7:05 p.m. ET, ESPN

Dallas Keuchel (3-3, 3.50 ERA) (ATL) +135 / +1.5 runs (-150) / Over 9.5 runs (-105) Patrick Corbin (8-5, 3.25 ERA) (WSH) -150 / -1.5 runs (+125) / Under 9.5 runs (-115)

MLB free play: Nationals -0.5 runs first five innings (EVEN)

Bettors should expect another solid effort from Nationals starter Patrick Corbin while Washington's offense takes it to Braves' starter Dallas Keuchel on Monday night.

Corbin has compiled a 1.60 ERA over his last seven starts (45 innings) and has allowed just two home runs in that span. He's 3-1 in his last seven appearances against the Braves, with a 2.68 ERA. Atlanta first baseman Freddie Freeman has just three hits against Corbin in 21 at-bats.

Keuchel is fresh off one of his best outings of the year—six innings of three-hit, two-run ball with 12 strikeouts against the Royals. He labored against the Nationals in his first start of the year June 21, when he allowed three runs on eight hits in five innings. Washington is fourth in batting average against lefties this season at .279. Keuchel has struggled with control of late, with 14 walks in his last six starts, and the Nats are first in free passes drawn this month at 87.

Avoid betting the Nationals in full-time markets, as their bullpen cannot be trusted (last in ERA at 6.04), and head for the first five innings runline instead.

Toronto Blue Jays (40-67) at Kansas City Royals (40-67), 8:15 p.m. ET

Thomas Pannone (2-4, 6.39 ERA) (TOR) +115 / +1.5 runs (-160) / Over 9.5 runs (-115) Brad Keller (7-9, 3.95 ERA) (KC) -125 / -1.5 runs (+135) / Under 9.5 runs (-105)

MLB free play: Royals moneyline

The Royals are offering good value on the moneyline in their series opener with the Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium on Monday night.

Kansas City starter Brad Keller owns a sparkling 1.33 ERA in his last four efforts. His most recent outing was arguably his most impressive of the year, as he shutout the Braves through seven innings at SunTrust Park. Keller has been excellent at home all season, where he has produced a 3.29 ERA and .204 opponent batting average in eight starts. Those marks jump to 4.39 and .272, respectively, on the road.

Stretched-out reliever Thomas Pannone will counter for Toronto. Opponents are batting .349 against Pannone as a starter this season. Left fielder Alex Gordon (.350 average last 15 games) should lead the Royals' attack.

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