Wednesday MLB preview: Mets at Phillies, Rays at Twins

New York Mets (37-43) at Philadelphia Phillies (41-38), 7:05 p.m. ET

Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.75 ERA) (NYM) +140 / +1.5 runs (-135) / Over 11 runs (-105) Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.54 ERA) (PHI) -155 / -1.5 runs (+115) / Under 11 runs (-115)

MLB free play: Over

The Mets and Phillies have exceeded some lofty totals in the first two games of this series, and it looks like bettors should go back to the well Wednesday night.

Jason Vargas' 4.65 road ERA in 2019 is significantly higher than his 2.79 ERA at Citi Field. His opponent batting average at home is .202, but it jumps to .268 in away games. The Mets' bullpen has been the worst in baseball this month, with a 7.44 ERA.

Nick Pivetta has struggled in his last six starts (30 1/3 innings) against the Mets, with a 6.23 ERA in those games. The opposition is batting .308 against him at Citizens Bank Park this year (six starts). Pivetta's bullpen offers little relief, as they're fourth-worst in the month of June, with a 6.36 ERA.

Tampa Bay Rays (45-34) at Minnesota Twins (51-27), 8:10 p.m. ET

Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.31 ERA) (TB) -105 / +1.5 runs (-200) / Over 9 runs (-110) Jake Odorizzi (10-3, 2.58 ERA) (MIN) -105 / -1.5 runs (+165) / Under 9 runs (-110)

MLB free play: Under five runs first five innings (-105)

Charlie Morton squares off with Jake Odorizzi in an American League Cy Young contender showdown at Target Field on Wednesday night, so bettors should brace for a low-scoring affair.

Morton has excelled on the road this year, with a 5-0 record in nine starts and a 1.57 ERA. Opponents are batting just .178 against him in those efforts. The right-hander stymied Minnesota through seven innings May 30 at Tropicana Field, where he conceded only two runs. The Under is 19-7 in Tampa's last 26 road games, per Covers.com.

Odorizzi has been incredible at home this year, with a 6-0 record in seven starts, a 1.91 ERA and batting average against of .190. His WHIP at Target Field is 0.898, significantly better than his 1.263 mark in road games. Odorizzi tossed six shutout innings and allowed just three hits against the Rays on June 2. The Under is 5-1-1 in Odorizzi's last seven starts at home.

Not having to worry about the 4.5-run hook in the first five innings market is huge. Take advantage of this generous offering by the oddsmakers.

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