Weekend MLB preview: Astros at Yankees

Two of the American League's best teams, the Houston Astros (48-28) and New York Yankees (47-27), will play a weekend series in the Bronx. Here's what bettors should be watching for.

Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET

Brad Peacock (6-4, 3.67 ERA) (HOU) +135 / +1.5 runs (-155) / Over 9.5 runs (-105) James Paxton (4-3, 3.93 ERA) (NYY) -150 / -1.5 runs (+130) / Under 9.5 runs (-115)

MLB free play: Yankees -0.5 runs first five innings (-110)

The Yankees have the advantage over the Astros on Friday night.

James Paxton's home splits in 2019 are imposing, as his ERA in six starts is 2.15 and ppponents are batting just .173 against him at Yankee Stadium this year. Houston is 11th in road offense (4.97 runs per game) and have lost five in a row. The Astros have tallied four runs or fewer in seven of their last 11 contests.

Brad Peacock is trending in the wrong direction for Houston, as he has a 5.51 ERA in June (three starts). His home and road splits suggest that the Bombers will have no problem scratching out runs. Peacock has allowed hitters to bat about 30 points higher outside of Minute Maid Park over the last 3 1/2 seasons. New York is hopeful that All-Star right fielder Aaron Judge will return to the lineup in this one.

Both of these bullpens are in a funk, sporting ERAs of more than 5.00 in June. Bettors would be wise to invest in the first five innings market rather than full-time.

Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET, FOX

This primetime affair promises to be high-scoring, as Wade Miley (6-4, 3.30 ERA) will take the hill against Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 3.23 ERA).

Miley has a sub-2.00 ERA at home this year (seven starts) but has fared far worse on the road, where he has a 4.68 ERA in eight starts. Opponents are batting .207 against him at Minute Maid Park but .268 everywhere else. Miley is 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA in his last five starts against New York. Newest Yankee Edwin Encarnacion is 7-for-19 (.368) lifetime against Miley, with three home runs and eight walks.

Tanaka could slide back off a 111-pitch complete game against the Rays on Monday. He had a 5.79 ERA in three starts prior to that performance. Tanaka is 0-2 with an 8.35 ERA in four starts against the Astros. Second baseman Jose Altuve, third baseman Alex Bregman and catcher Robinson Chirinos are a combined 13-for-35 (.371) against him.

Sunday, 2:05 p.m. ET

The series finale starts a little later than usual, as the Yankees host their 73rd annual "Old-Timers' Day," which features Hall of Fame closer Mariano Rivera for the first time.

The Yankees have seen plenty of Houston starter Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.59 ERA) in the past, and they usually come out on the wrong end of things against him. He's allowed just two earned runs in his last three starts against the Bombers (21 1/3 innings). Verlander sports a 6.65 strikeout/walk ratio and .157 opponent batting average in this season.

J.A. Happ will counter for the Yankees, and he's averaging 5.35 innings per start for New York this year. The Astros could send the southpaw to the showers early in this one, as they're sixth in batting average against lefties this year (.278).