NFC Wild Card Round Picks

Sunday’s action features an anticipated match-up between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit, and the NFL has added a Monday game to the NFC wild-card round. YouBet’s James Scully analyzes and provides a pick for all three NFC wild-card games.

Dallas Cowboys -7.5 (Sunday)

We give Green Bay credit for emerging from a late-season slump, performing at a higher level in the last two games after a trio of ugly performances versus the Giants, Tampa Bay, and Carolina, and the Packers are happy to be in this spot after losing every game in October. Inconsistency is their calling card, and Jordan Love and his banged-up receiving corps are impossible to trust in this spot.

Dallas (6-2 ATS at home this season) loves to feast upon vulnerable opponents, winning six of its eight home games by at least 20 points, including beat-downs of the Rams and Eagles, and the Cowboys' fifth-ranked pass defense is opportunistic. Tony Pollard exits an encouraging performance at Washington, and Dak Prescott will carve up a Packers pass defense that has allowed more than 300 passing yards to Bryce Young and Baker Mayfield in the last four weeks.

Green Bay isn’t good in the red zone, and it’s easy to envision the Packers falling behind early against an efficient Dallas offense. That will open the door for Dallas’ pass rush, and we like the Cowboys to win going away by a double-digit margin.

Detroit-L.A. Rams Over 51.5 (Sunday)

Detroit ranks third in total offense, and the Lions have been competitive in every game since losing to Baltimore in Week 7, averaging more than 30 points per game in the last five home contests. The Lions have been forced to outscore opponents at times, ranking 27th in pass defense.

This promises to be a fun one, as both teams bring it offensively. The Rams have won seven of their last eight games, discovering their best form when Kyren Williams returned from a six-game absence midseason, and Detroit fans have every reason to be nervous for Matthew Stafford’s homecoming. The Rams offense is humming presently.

Both teams can be exploited defensively. The Rams also must outscore opponents, winning the last four games by one score and ranking in the bottom half of the league in total defense and pass defense, and we’ve seen these kind of matchups come down to whoever has the ball last.

Detroit tied for the most Overs (11) during the regular season, and these teams combined to go Over in 20 of 34 games. We will play the Over in an anticipated shoot-out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (Monday)

Tampa Bay won four straight games late in the season to take control of the NFC South, but the Bucs haven’t looked good the last two weeks, struggling offensively in a loss to New Orleans and a win over Carolina. But those teams possessed competent defenses. Philadelphia lacks a pass rush as well as the will to stop anyone defensively.

While dropping five of the last six games, the Eagles were forced to change their defensive coordinator, but that made little impact, as they lost by an average margin of 31.5-19.1 since early December. The secondary is in disarray, and Philadelphia makes bad quarterbacks look good. Adding to the misery, Philadelphia played its starters in a meaningless Week 18 game and some key players, including Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, were banged-up.

Along with top-flight wide receivers, Tampa has big-play ability from Rachaad White out of the backfield, and we liked how the Buccaneers took advantage of an injured and reeling Green Bay pass defense in Week 15. The Packers couldn’t apply any pressure, and Baker Mayfield diced up their secondary for 381 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Tampa Bay played at a higher level down the stretch, winning five of the last six games, and Philadelphia has no momentum on either side of the ball. We will grab the points at home with Tampa!