NFL Divisional Round Parlay: High-scoring offenses square off in Chicago

After an exciting wildcard weekend, four games are set for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. YouBet.com has identified three best bets and recommends the following parlay, all lines courtesy of BetMGM and times listed as Eastern Standard Time. 

Divisional Round Parlay (+606): Bills +1 – Texans +3 – Over 48.5 (Rams-Bears)

Bills at Broncos, Empower Field at Mile High, Saturday 4:30 p.m. 

The most dangerous quarterback remaining in the playoffs, Josh Allen, led the Bills to a 27-24 victory over the Jaguars last week, twice erasing fourth-quarter deficits with touchdown drives. He finds a way despite lacking elite wide receivers, completing passes to nine different players against a formidable Jacksonville defense, and Allen owns a sizable edge over his counterpart, Bo Nix. Since losing J.K. Dobbins in Week 10, the Broncos have lacked a ground game, averaging only 103 rushing yards per game since Week 11. Their inability to rush effectively, combined with a pedestrian passing attack, often kept opponents close. The run defense is Buffalo’s weakness; the Bills got after Trevor Lawrence last weekend, forcing a pair of interceptions, and will look to force Nix into passing situations. Riding with Josh Allen in this spot.

Pick: Bills +1

Texans at Patriots, Gillette Stadium, Sunday, 3 p.m.

Texans pulled away to a convincing win over the Steelers despite C.J. Stroud failing to show his best on Monday night, scoring a pair of defensive touchdowns. But Stroud knows what he’s doing, compiling a 3-2 playoff record, and we expect an improved performance. Texans own the defensive edge against a mostly untested Pats team that rode defense to an ugly 16-3 win over the Chargers in the wild card round. Drake Maye was not sharp, throwing an interception and losing a fumble in the first half, completing 17 of 29 passes for the game. Give Maye credit for taking advantage of bad teams – Patriots were 2-2 against playoff teams and 12-1 vs the rest during regular season – but he’s not played well against the last two playoff teams he’s faced. And the Texans' defense is at another level. Points are attractive in a projected close game.

Pick: Texans +3

Rams at Bears, Soldier Field, Sunday 6:30 p.m.

Both offenses can light up the scoreboard, with the Rams leading the NFL (30.7 points per game) and the Bears ranking ninth (26.2). And behind Caleb Williams, the Bears have a motivational edge entering the fourth quarter, rallying from behind to win six times this season. Last Saturday night proved magical, as the Bears trailed Green Bay 21-9 entering the fourth quarter and rode a brilliant performance from Williams (who wound up with 361 passing yards and two touchdowns) to win 31-27 in the final minutes. The Bears abandoned the rushing game after falling behind early in the wildcard round, but they’ll have success against the declining Rams defense that is surrendering 30 points per game over the last five contests. And given the state of the Bears' defense (29th-ranked, allowing 365.1 yards per game), a shootout is expected.

Pick: Over 48.5