NFL 2023: Picks and Player Props for Week 12

The second half of the season is in full swing, and we will focus on a trio of NFL games in Week 12, selecting either a side or total from each game as well as player props of interest.

YOUBET Week 12 bets

Arizona Cardinals +1

Kyler Murray appears motivated since returning from injury in Week 10, leading Arizona to a come-from-behind win over Atlanta, and the Cardinals had every chance to win last week after holding playoff contender Houston scoreless in the second half. Arizona is still tied on, playing hard for first-year coach Jonathan Gannon, and James Conner will provide offensive balance against the Rams’ 22nd-ranked run defense. Los Angeles, which has failed to cover four straight while being banged up in all areas, has lost its offensive mojo. Copper Kupp is questionable, Matthew Stafford continues to take a lot of hits, and the Rams can’t run effectively. After averaging 13.3 points in a three-game stretch, the Rams scored only seven through the first three quarters last week against Seattle, which was cruising to a victory until Geno Smith was injured. Smith returned for the final drive, and the Seahawks drove on the porous Rams defense only to miss a last-second field goal, but don’t be fooled by the result — the Rams aren’t playing well.

Atlanta-New Orleans Under 42.5

Neither team is firing on all cylinders, but Atlanta (5-5) and New Orleans (6-4) remain firmly in contention in the weak NFC South. And both teams rely on defense. New Orleans may get Derek Carr back from concussion protocol, but the Saints have struggled to score points and recorded less than 90 rushing yards versus Chicago and Minnesota in recent weeks. Atlanta, which has lost four of the last five, will switch back to Desmond Ridder after Taylor Heinicke played poorly, but he isn’t the answer for an offense that lacks rhythm. In a meeting of declining teams, we will take the Under.

Denver Broncos -1.5

Huge edge at quarterback for resurgent Denver, which has won four straight. Russell Wilson has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions during the win streak, and the Broncos defense has improved significantly as well, holding opponents to 17 points per game. Denver is forcing turnovers, seven takeaways in the last two games, and that spells trouble for Cleveland rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has four interceptions in two starts. Cleveland needed a last-minute field-goal drive to win last week despite facing a hapless Pittsburgh offense, barely outgaining the Steelers (259-249 in total yards), and the Browns aren’t going to show up and simply win with defense. Their offense is terrible without Deshaun Watson, the Browns had to resign Joe Flacco this week, and the old veteran may see action this week after Thompson-Robinson struggles to move the ball in a difficult environment. We like Denver in the Mile High City!

YOUBET Player props

James Conner Over 68.5 rushing yards -115

James Conner is averaging more than five yards per carry, and he’s poised for a good showing against one of the league’s worst run defenses. Since missing a four-game stretch due to injury, Conner has played well in a pair of games and with running back Emari Demercado questionable due to a toe injury, Arizona figures to lean more heavily upon him. Conner projects to have one of his best games of the year, and we’ll play the Over on his rushing yards.

Desmond Ridder Under 192.5 passing yards -115

New Orleans features the seventh-ranked pass defense (199.1 passing yards allowed per game), and Desmond Ridder has struggled in the role, throwing for only 115 yards versus Carolina’s fifth-ranked pass defense. Atlanta will look to avoid mistakes in an expected low-scoring game, limiting pass attempts by relying upon its seventh-ranked rushing offense, and we like the Under on Ridder’s pass yards.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson Under 174.5 passing yards -115

“Short right” or “short left” accompanies nearly every pass Dorian Thompson-Robinson throws, the rookie is not comfortable reading defenses or passing downfield at this early stage in his career, and he threw for 165 yards despite making 43 attempts last week. Cleveland wants to reduce the pass attempts drastically this week, reducing the possibility for mistakes against a Denver defense that forces turnovers, and we don’t project much success on the road. That makes the Under on passing yards appealing.