Sierra Leone, Fierceness head Kentucky Derby leaderboard following major preps

Sierra Leone and Fierceness appear likely to vie for favoritism in the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 4. And after the final round of major prep races, it’s no surprise to see the classy performers lead the way on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

To earn a spot in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, horses need to earn qualifying points in designated races in the Road to Kentucky Derby (RTKD) series. The series begins in September and point values increase along the way, culminating in eight major qualifiers offering points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the top five respective finishers.

Let’s examine the top 10 point-earners.

Sierra Leone will lead all Kentucky Derby runners with 155 points. A powerful late runner trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone picked up five points when concluding his juvenile season with a nose second in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct, and he garnered 150 additional points capturing his two starts this year, picking up 50 for the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds and a 100 for his stirring performance in the April 6 Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland. Sierra Leone promises to be closing boldly on the far turn of the Kentucky Derby.

Fierceness, the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby following a smashing win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last November, dropped his first start back in 2024, finishing a disappointing third at odds-on, but the Todd Pletcher-trained colt rebounded spectacularly in the Florida Derby (G1), romping by 13 1/2 lengths. That was the fastest performance of any RTKD race this year based on Brisnet Speed ratings (110 rating), and Fierceness surged to second on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 136 total points.

Catching Freedom, winner of the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park and third in the Risen Star, comes next on the leaderboard with 125 points following a sharp win in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He’s one of two runners inside the top 20 for Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox. 

Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Stronghold will the lone representative from California. Runner-up in his first two stakes appearances as a two-year-old, Stronghold has moved forward at age 3 for trainer Phil d’Amato, recording a convincing triumph in the Sunland Derby (G3) and a courageous head score in the Santa Anita Derby. He owns the same point total (125) as Catching Freedom, but ranks fourth based upon non-restricted stakes earnings.

Resilience jumped to fifth on the leaderboard (110 points) by virtue of his convincing win in the Wood Memorial (G2). That was only the second stakes appearance by the Bill Mott-trained colt, who finished a respectable fourth in a deep Risen Star, and Resilience’s tactical ability may prove advantageous under the Twin Spires.

The Japanese have taken aim at the Kentucky Derby in recent years, and unbeaten star Forever Young will be their most talented representative year. He qualified via the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai, moving to sixth in the standings with the 100-point prize, and along with being a serious win contender, Forever Young will receive support from the betting public.

A turf performer last year, Endlessly opened his sophomore season with a pair of wins over synthetic tracks, stamping his Kentucky Derby ticket with a four-length score in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park. He will make his first start on a dirt track at Churchill Downs.

Dornoch never fired when switching to rating tactics in the Blue Grass, checking in fourth, but his spot in the Kentucky Derby field was already safe due to wins in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Remsen, winding up eighth on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 75 points.

Just a Touch will provide Brad Cox a second Kentucky Derby starter following his commendable runner-up effort in the Blue Grass. He made his first start at two turn and on a fast track that afternoon, and Just a Touch’s positional speed looks favorable. He also has 75 points.

Winner of the Lecomte (G3) and Gun Runner over the winter, Track Phantom rounds out the top 10 with 70 points. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt possesses speed, but Track Phantom will need to find more following a runner-up in the Risen Star and a fourth in the Louisiana Derby.

YouBet will provide more Kentucky Derby coverage over the next three weeks!