Prop Betting Strategy: A Complete Guide

Sports betting has risen at an unparalleled rate in recent years. One of the most popular movements within the world of sports betting is prop betting. 

Each player is looking to find a prop betting strategy that will deliver wins consistently. In this guide, learn how to win player prop bets by learning as much about the market as possible.

What are Prop Bets and How to Win Them?

Prop bets revolve around a specific action within the game. These actions can be either player- or team-driven. For instance, you might bet on the number of points a team will score in a particular quarter or how many rebounds an individual player may have.

Before focusing on a player prop betting strategy, know what it takes to win. For example, let’s say that you bet on LeBron James to score over 21.5 points. He would need to score 22 points or more for your bet to cash.

What Types of Prop Bets Are There?

For the purposes of this section, let’s focus on the NBA. Though NBA player prop betting strategy tips are prevalent, they aren’t the only prop type. Creating a prop betting strategy means knowing that there are team props, game props, and player props.

Each offers value to the bettors in different ways. Tracking player performance can make it feel easier to choose a player prop like rebounds, assists, or points. Team props involve hitting certain scoring milestones. And game props can involve things like both teams hitting 100 points. Props are greatly varied, making them enticing to a wider range of bettors.

How Does Prop Betting Work Across Different Sports?

The most wonderful thing is that you don’t have to limit yourself to a single player prop betting strategy. There are prop bets across a variety of sports like football, basketball, and baseball, among other things. Each requires a specific strategy.

Football props are more matchup-based. Recent performance matters but compare head-to-head matchups instead. Basketball is similar, but recent trends definitely matter. Baseball is a bit tougher to predict because of the length of the season, even if recent performance is indicative of a particular outcome.

Other Popular Sports and Events for Prop Betting

Though prop betting is definitely popular in those sports, they aren’t the only options for wagering on props. Depending on the sportsbook, it is possible to wager on prop bets from MMA and boxing, soccer, Esports, and even pop culture and politics. As sports betting continues to grow, so does the catalog of available betting options.

Prop betting has become a popular alternative to traditional moneyline/spread betting. For sports that don’t have spreads, it is a fantastic option for those who want to make the action more interesting. It is possible to wager on things like win to nil (soccer), method of victory (MMA), how many eliminations (Esports), and more. The possibilities are very nearly limitless.

Can You Make Prop Bets on Live Games?

Live betting has grown exponentially in recent years. There is nothing like seeing the action unfold in a soccer or basketball game (among others), and then placing your wager at the perfect time. Players are no longer limited to making bets ahead of the game, presenting a litany of betting opportunities from the beginning of the game to the end.

There are advantages and disadvantages to be aware of. A big plus involves being able to get a feel for the game and take advantage of ever-changing odds. It also means potentially losing out on certain prop betting markets. 

The key is to dip your toe into the waters, live bet on a moneyline or spread, and get a better feel for it. Utilizing live betting can become a weapon if you are extremely familiar with a team or division because odds shift all the time, creating unique opportunities to win.

FAQs: Everything You Need to Know About Prop Betting Strategy

What are the best sports for prop betting?

Prop bets are popular in basketball, football, and baseball because of the many in-game statistics available. The NFL and NBA offer a wide variety of props, from player stats to team totals. Niche sports can also provide value, as sportsbooks may not set lines as accurately due to lower betting volume.

Is prop betting better than traditional game betting?

Prop betting can offer more opportunities for value compared to betting on game winners or totals. Since sportsbooks often focus more on point spreads and moneylines, prop bets may have softer lines. However, they require deeper research and bankroll management, as odds can be unpredictable.

How do sportsbooks set odds for prop bets?

Sportsbooks set prop betting odds based on historical data, player performance, and betting trends. However, they don’t always adjust prop lines as aggressively as game lines. This gives sharp bettors a chance to find value by spotting player mismatches, recent trends, or overlooked statistics.

How do I research player prop bets effectively?

Look at player trends, recent performances, and matchups against opponents. Consider factors like injuries, playing time, and defensive matchups. Reviewing advanced metrics, such as usage rate in basketball or yards per carry in football, can provide valuable insights when placing prop bets.

Should I bet on player props or team props?

Both options can be profitable, but player props allow for more control and research-based betting. Team props rely on overall team performance, which can be harder to predict. If you follow specific players closely, focusing on player props may give you an edge over sportsbooks.

What are the risks of prop betting?

Prop betting can be volatile, as single plays or coaching decisions can drastically impact the outcome. Player injuries, foul trouble, or changes in game script can all affect prop results. Managing risk by placing bets with strong statistical backing and avoiding excessive wagers is key.

How does correlated prop betting work and how can I use it?

Correlated props involve bets that have a higher chance of hitting together. For example, if you expect a quarterback to throw for a lot of yards, you might also bet on his top wide receiver’s receiving yards over. Finding logical connections between bets can increase your overall profitability.

Is it better to bet props early or wait until closer to game time?

It depends on the market. Betting early can be advantageous if you spot an inefficiency in the line before sportsbooks adjust. However, waiting until closer to game time allows you to account for late-breaking news like injuries or lineup changes, which can heavily impact player performance props.

What role does game script play in prop betting success?

Game script is crucial in predicting prop outcomes. If a team is expected to dominate, the winning team may rely more on running plays in football or bench players in basketball, affecting certain player props. Understanding expected game flow can help you make more accurate prop bets.

How can I take advantage of sportsbook prop betting limits?

Since sportsbooks limit the amount you can bet on props compared to traditional bets, sharp bettors use multiple accounts to place similar bets across different books. This helps maximize profits while staying under the radar of sportsbooks that might flag winning players for restrictions.

What are the best bankroll management strategies for prop betting?

Since prop bets can be more volatile than traditional wagers, using a unit-based approach helps manage risk. Betting a consistent percentage of your bankroll—such as 1-3% per prop—ensures you don’t overextend on a single bet. Adjusting bet size based on confidence level can also improve long-term success.