Three MLB win totals worth a wager

BetAmerica is getting ready for the return of America's national pastime with a full slate of Major League Baseball win totals. We've examined the projections for all 30 MLB teams and have identified three that present enormous value to bettors. 

Tampa Bay Rays (91.5)

The Rays had a somewhat puzzling offseason, but their roster looks just as good if not better going into 2020 after winning 96 games last year.

Tampa’s decision to deal Tommy Pham to the Padres was a head-scratcher but the main player they landed in return, Hunter Renfroe, is no slouch as he hit 33 homers last year. The Rays appear to have downgraded at catcher by letting Travis d’Arnaud walk away and signing Mike Zunino (.165 average last season) to a two-year extension, but that’s where the negatives end.

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo was brought in from Japan following 10 solid seasons of production at the plate (.910 OPS). And Jose Martinez, criminally underutilized in 2019, was acquired from the Cardinals for a pitching prospect. They join an already-strong lineup led by outfielder Austin Meadows (.922 OPS in 2019).

Assuming starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow (1.78 ERA through 12 starts in 2019) and Blake Snell (1.89 ERA when healthy in 2018) stay off the IL, the Rays’ rotation will rival the effectiveness of their bullpen, which was tops in the majors in ERA last season (3.66).

MLB free pick: Over

Seattle Mariners (67.5)

The Mariners committed to a full-on rebuild when they shipped Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz out of town last offseason and stuck with that plan this winter, so fans should prepare for another long year in Seattle.

The M’s dealt catcher Omar Navaez (.813 OPS in 2019) to Milwaukee for prospects at the Winter Meetings and let outfielder Domingo Santana (.770 OPS in 2019) walk away. Seattle will sport a lineup filled with middling prospects like shortstop J.P. Crawford and one-dimensional veterans like outfielder Mallex Smith in 2020.

Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi are the only two pitchers returning to the rotation, cuing Justus Sheffield (5.50 ERA in 2019) to take more lumps this year. The Mariners’ bullpen was 12th in the AL in ERA last season and merely added Carl Edwards Jr. (8.47 ERA in 2019) to try to correct that. The AL West could be the toughest division in baseball in 2020, and Seattle will more than likely be in the cellar from start to finish.

MLB free pick: Under

Texas Rangers (77.5)

The Rangers are probably not a playoff team, but they’ve improved their club in the offseason and simply need to match their win total from last year for Over bettors to cash.

Texas pulled off a coup by getting two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber from the Indians for a package headlined by marginal outfielder Delino DeShields. He joins a stout rotation led by Mike Minor (14-10, 3.59 ERA in 2019) and Lance Lynn (16-11, 3.67 ERA). Kyle Gibson (13-7, 4.84 ERA) and Jordan Lyles (12-8, 4.15 ERA) were signed to add depth to a very solid unit.

Texas pulled off a coup by getting two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber from the Indians for a package headlined by marginal outfielder Delino DeShields. He joins a stout rotation led by Mike Minor (14-10, 3.59 ERA in 2019) and Lance Lynn (16-11, 3.67 ERA). Kyle Gibson (13-7, 4.84 ERA) and Jordan Lyles (12-8, 4.15 ERA) were signed to add depth to a very solid unit.

Texas’ bullpen wasn’t anything to write home about in 2019 (20th in ERA) but Jose Leclerc (3.18 career ERA) is a solid option to close games out. The Rangers seemed to unearth a gem late last season in Rafael Montero, whom the Mets gave up on in 2017. The Dominican native closed out last year with a 2.48 ERA in 22 appearances. Veteran hurler Edinson Volquez, who was talked out of retirement, could prove to be a valuable reclamation project as well.

The Rangers were just 12th in runs per game last year and didn’t do much to improve their lineup, aside from adding experienced third baseman Todd Frazier and reuniting with former catcher Robinson Chirinos (who should prove to be an upgrade over Jeff Mathis). However, if outfielders Joey Gallo and Willie Calhoun and first baseman Ronald Guzman can avoid the IL, they stand to improve on last year’s ranking.

MLB free pick: Over 

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