Masters 2020: The key betting trends you need to know ahead of Augusta

The 2020 Masters Tournament is here, but before the world’s best players tee off in Augusta these are several top trends you need to know to pick a winner. Luckily, that's where we come in. We've looked closely at every champion from the last 15 years, and have determined who will merge victorious this weekend.

73% of winners were in the Top 5 for greens in regulation

Potentially the most important number at Augusta is greens in regulation percentage. Patrick Reed in 2018 is the big anomaly here as he ranked 21st on his way to the green jacket. Aside from Reed, every one of the last eight winners has been in the Top 6, showing just how important it is getting onto the dance floor.

73% of winners were in the Top 15 for scrambling

If you aren’t finding the greens, your scrambling has to be on point. Tiger Woods ranked 50th for scrambling when he won in 2019, which is the big outlier and stands out like a sore thumb. Danny Willett in 2016 and Trevor Immelman in 2008 both ranked tops in scrambling on their way to victory.

80% of winners were in the Top 20 for putting average

The belief that putting wins the Masters isn’t a myth, but you don’t necessarily need to hole everything. Reed ranked first for putting average in 2018, as did Jordan Spieth in 2015, but the other six winners since 2012 have all been outside the Top 10. Adam Scott (2013), Bubba Watson (2012), and Zach Johnson (2007) were all ranked outside the Top 25 for putting as they went on to win.

67% of winners were in the Top 20 for driving distance

Hitting it long is always going to be an advantage, but being accurate and avoiding trouble appears more valuable around Augusta with a third of winners in the last 15 years outside the Top 20. Phil Mickelson (2010) and Bubba Watson (2012 and 2014) both ranked inside the Top 5 for driving distance, but Tiger Woods (2019), Danny Willett (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Charl Schwartzel (2011), and Zach Johnson (2007) were all outside the Top 30!

87% of winners were in the Top 15 for par 3 performance

We know how dangerous the par-3 12th hole can be at Augusta, while there are huge dangers and glorious opportunities at the other par 3s (holes 4, 6 and 16). How you play these holes is a huge factor in whether or not you will win the green jacket. Reed is again the anomaly in 2018, ranking 43rd in par 3 performance, but Tiger Woods (2019), Danny Willett (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), and Bubba Watson (2014) all ranked in the Top 2 for how they played the par 3s.

73% of winners were in the Top 20 for par 5 performance

While not being as important as the par 3s, how the pros play the long holes is going to dictate how well they fare on the leaderboard. Holes 2, 8, 13, and 15 throw up birdie chances, but playing these solidly rather than spectacularly is important. Reed (2018), Johnson (2007), and Mickelson (2006) ranked first for par 5 performance, but three of the last four winners have been outside the Top 15. Danny Willett was as low as 54th when he won in 2016.

66% of winners had played four times or more at Augusta. 100% had played at least once

Experience is key. Willett and Spieth both won on just their second go at Augusta, but they are the exceptions rather than the rule. Sergio Garcia had played 18 times before winning in 2017, and Adam Scott had played it 11 times before winning in 2013. Having at least one look around this infamous course is crucial, and honestly, the more the better.

66% of winners had a Top 10 finish in the Masters. 87% had a Top 30 finish

It’s not just playing at the course that is important, it’s playing it well. Danny Willett (2016) and Zach Johnson (2007) are the only winners in the last 15 years who had never finished in the Top 30 at Augusta, so we are looking for someone with Augusta form not just experience.

66% of winners were in the Top 16 in the World Rankings. 93% were in the Top 30

In the last 15 years Angel Cabrera was the only player not in the world’s Top 30 to win the Masters, as the cream really rises to the top at Augusta. There isn’t room for a fluke win here, the best players thrive. Patrick Reed (ranked 24th) is the only player in the last eight years to be ranked outside of the Top 16 in the world when he won, although the world No. 1 hasn’t put on the green jacket in the last 15 years.

60% of winners had a Top 5 finish already in the season. 80% had a Top 10 finish

It probably goes without saying, but if you want to contend for the green jacket you need to have shown some title-challenging form, particularly earlier in the season. You can’t come to Augusta cold. Nine of the last 10 winners had posted a Top 10 in the season on the way to Augusta, with Spieth (2015) and Bubba (2014) both winning earlier in the year. Trevor Immelman in 2008 is the anomaly, having not finished better than 17th in the season he won the green jacket.

Who will win The Masters?

The man who all the numbers point to is none other than Jon Rahm (+1000). Ranked No. 2 in the world, he has three previous appearances at Augusta, finishing fourth in 2018 and ninth in 2019. At the end of October he finished second, one shot behind Patrick Cantlay in the Zozo Championship, so he ticks the box for earlier season form.

Rahm also ranked in the Top 15 on Tour last year for scrambling, putting average and par 3 performance, as well as ranking 18th for greens in regulation and 17th for driving distance. The Spaniard was ranked 28th for par 5 performance, which is still strong enough based on the 15-year trends, and I’m backing him to be wearing that green jacket on Sunday.

---

Get in the swing of things with BetAmerica's odds and props for the 2020 Masters Tournament.