Open Championship 10-year trends

The final golf major of the calendar year will tee off Thursday at Royal Troon in South Ayrshire, Scotland, where 158 players will compete for record prize money in the 2024 Open Championship.

With $3.1 million allocated for the winner, the Open will award more money than ever to the victor of golf's oldest major — an $100,000 increase from last year's first-place payout.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the +500 favorite to prevail at Royal Troon. He last appeared in the Travelers Championship at the end of June, when he defeated 22-year-old Tom Kim in a playoff to score his sixth tournament victory of 2024.

Scheffler earned his first win of the season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, then claimed The Players Championship the following week before tying for second in the Houston Open. His next tournament appearance resulted in his second green jacket at the Masters, and Scheffler continued his hot streak with a win at the RBC Heritage.

An apparent misunderstanding with law enforcement at the PGA Championship resulted in a controversial arrest that upended Scheffler's routine ahead of his second-round tee time, but the 28-year-old managed to tie for eighth in golf's second major. He then tied for second at the Charles Schwab Challenge and won the Memorial Tournament, but his run of top-10 finishes ended at the U.S. Open, with a T41 in mid-June.

Now Scheffler will make his fourth appearance at the Open, where he tied for eighth in his debut in 2021. His other two starts resulted in a T21 in 2022 and a T23 in 2023.

While his previous experience at the Open pales in comparison to his successes at the other three golf majors, recent trends at the Open Championship favor Scheffler quite a bit.

Below YouBet examines the top 10-year trends at the Open Championship to help you pinpoint the winner ahead of the 152nd edition of the tournament.

A player from the U.S. has won 5 of the last 10 Open Championships

Despite the Open's status as the only golf major held outside the U.S., Americans have succeeded frequently over the last 10 editions dating back to 2013 (the tournament was cancelled in 2020). Savannah, Georgia native Brian Harman celebrated his first major championship at the Open last year, while Collin Morikawa (2021), Jordan Spieth (2017), Zach Johnson (2015), and Phil Mickelson (2013) each earned the U.S. a win over the last decade.

Of the last 10 Open Championship tournaments, winners who were born outside the U.S. include Cameron Smith (Australia), Shane Lowry (Ireland), Francesco Molinari (Italy), Henrik Stenson (Sweden), and Rory McIlroy (Northern Ireland).

The first 29 editions of the Open were won by Scottish golfers, until Englishman John Ball claimed victory in 1890. In all, 31 players from the U.S. have lifted the Claret Jug, while 21 hailed from Scotland, 13 were from England, five from Australia, four from South Africa, three from Northern Ireland, two from the Republic of Ireland, and two from Jersey. Sweden, Italy, Zimbabwe, Spain, Argentina, New Zealand, and France have each had one representative finish first in the Open Championship.

8 of the past 10 Open winners posted a top 10 at a previous Open

Previous success at an Open bodes well for future success, in spite of the tournament rotating courses each year. Dating back to 2013, only two winners had failed to crack the top 10 in a previous Open tournament — Cameron Smith's best finish prior to his 2022 victory was a T20, and Collin Morikawa won the Open in his debut in 2021.

Among the top 15 on the current 2024 Open Championship oddsboard (as of Wednesday, July 17), every player but Ludvig Aberg has a top-10 finish in the Open. A 24-year-old from Sweden, Aberg turned pro in June of 2023 and has enjoyed a breakout year in 2024. Fourth in the Official World Golf Ranking at the moment, he posted a runner-up finish in his Masters debut earlier this April, and he tied for 12th at the U.S. Open. Aberg also finished tied for fourth in last week's Scottish Open.

You can get +175 odds at DraftKings on Aberg to finish as the "top debutant" in the 2024 Open Championship, followed by Akshay Bhatia and Davis Thompson, both at +800. Bhatia, a Los Angeles native, tied for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic most recently, and Thompson, born in Atlanta, Georgia, won the John Deere Classic in early July, then tied for 46th at the Scottish Open.

8 of the past 10 winners competed the week before the Open

Aberg's participation in the Scottish Open may have been a smart move, as eight of the past 10 Open champions competed in a tournament the week before their Open Championship win.

Last year, Harman tied for 12th at the Scottish Open before hoisting the Claret Jug, while Smith tied for 10th at the same event prior to his Open victory.

Lowry bucked the trend but taking a week of rest between his T34 at the Irish Open and his win at Royal Portrush. Jordan Spieth had an extended break ahead of his Open victory as well. He endured almost a month of rest between his Travelers Championship triumph and his Open start at Royal Birkdale in 2017.

The average margin of victory is 2.8 strokes

The winner of the Open Championship has been decided via playoff 21 times, and once in the last decade. Of the last 10 editions, the average margin of victory is 2.8 strokes, and the largest margin of victory dating back to 2013 is six strokes (in 2019 and 2023). 

The overall record for margin of victory is 13 strokes, accomplished by Old Tom Morris in 1862 at Prestwick Golf Club.

The odds on the margin of victory ending in one stroke exactly in the 2024 tournament is +225. You can find +350 odds on a playoff, four strokes or more, and two strokes exactly. A three-stroke margin of victory is listed at +600 odds.

How to watch the 2024 Open Championship

The Open Championship will take place from Thursday, July 18, to Sunday, July 21.

USA will offer coverage from 4 a.m. to 3 p.m. ET on Thursday and Friday; 5 to 7 a.m. ET on Saturday, and 4 to 7 a.m. ET on Sunday. NBC will broadcast the Open from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. ET on Saturday and 7 a.m. to 2 p.m. ET on Sunday.