How to Handicap NFL Games: Step-by-Step Guide for 2025

Don’t look now: NFL games are here. NFL betting is the most popular choice at online sportsbooks. Given football is the most popular sport in the country, it makes sense that millions of NFL bettors would play each week.

Every season, NFL handicappers come together in order to pick regular season games, analyze line movements, and find an advantage. NFL bettors looking to take advantage of the NFL betting market can find enough information within those betting markets to make better bets, exploit each matchup, and develop a winning wager on game day.

Tips for NFL Handicap Betting

Looking to handicap NFL games like a pro? It isn’t as difficult as it sounds. There are a number of factors involved when betting on even a single game. With so many regular season games to follow, you can improve your handicap success rate and put together a winning resume. Here are the simplest tips if you are looking to handicap NFL betting this season.

Watch for Injuries

There are a lot of factors that can impact a game – and the line on the game. Injuries, especially to star players like quarterbacks, can have a massive impact on the game. For that reason, it is vital to watch reports to check for injuries on both teams.

In the NFL, teams are very close in terms of talent. That is why the average line is so close. An underdog can steal any game each week. If you want to handicap like a pro, you need to check for injuries that can impact the game. Winning and losing might seemingly happen at random, but this is one of those things that can shift the odds even if the line doesn’t change.

RELATED: The most gruesome injuries in NFL history

Home Field Advantage

When attempting to handicap the line, sportsbooks approach NFL games with a few factors in mind. For example, home field advantage can play a substantial part in handicapping games for the week. Depending on the game, it can also play a big role in which way the money moves.

Though home field advantage doesn’t necessarily equate to home teams winning all the time, it matters. Teams get points from the sportsbooks for being at home, for example. Plenty of bets on the underdog make sense, but the line will certainly be influenced by the team coming out to the hometown crowd. Consider that when making your bets.

Weather Conditions

Bettors have become savvy to the weather in recent years. After all, how many times have teams been hampered by weather conditions that they aren’t familiar with. Though it isn’t necessarily easy money, what would normally be a high-scoring game can swing when the weather shifts.

Points come at a premium in the NFL. When the weather is nasty, teams struggle to score and move the ball. Points become even more important. When making your bets, be sure that the weather will not be drastic enough to impact the teams. If the weather report calls for snow or heavy rain, take the spread on the game and odds are good that you will be in the money.

Team Motivation

Not all teams are created equally in the NFL. Just as importantly, not every game or line is as it appears. Two teams who appear to be mismatched in terms of record may be playing with different things on the line that week. Consider the motivation involved in each game, not just the line.

Stats tell part of the story and certainly play a role when sportsbooks handicap the spread. But the thing about making successful bets is that sometimes you have to look at the intangibles. In the NFL, teams lacking motivation can be taken advantage of. Star players like quarterbacks may sit late in the season, drastically changing the equation for bettors. Consider what each of the teams is playing for in the final week or two of the season.

Consider The “Trap Game”

Winning bets each week involve analyzing stats, looking closely at the line, and determining how teams match up with one another. Unfortunately, everything about the spread can make sense until the two teams get on the field.

This is called the “trap” game. On paper, one team is better than the other. But there is a chance that they are looking ahead to next week. In the NFL, you can’t do that. In a game featuring a heavy favorite, taking the points spread may be ideal. The underdog may not win outright, but bettors can take advantage in that lapse by the favorite to win some money.

Study the Offense/Defense Matchup

The NFL is about matchups. Bettors often make the mistake of basing their opinion on the overall performance of the teams involved. When you break down the game, it is more about how the offense matches up against the opposing defense and vice versa. In order to be successful when placing your bets, look at the matchups on either side of the line.

If two teams have similar records, compare how they stack up in terms of offense vs. defense. Smart bettors are able to handicap NFL games effectively because they are scanning every aspect of the game for an edge. If an offense that scores a lot of points goes up a struggling defense, your bets should match accordingly.

Just Pick a Winner

It can’t be said enough: winning in the NFL is difficult. No matter what your opinion is of the teams involved, the final score is determined by minutiae that not everyone can see. Successful bets are tough enough, so if you want to make money regularly, focus on the money line.

The line is so enticing when making bets because of the potential payout. While betting on the money line might not be as attractive, it is arguably the best way to win consistently when attempting to handicap NFL games. How many points scored doesn’t matter; simplify your bets by choosing who will walk out the winner.

Tail the Line

One of the more effective ways to handicap NFL bets is to watch the line. Games for the next week will have odds posted almost immediately the next Monday. A lot happens in the week leading up to the game, so keep an eye on the action as the week unfolds.

For example, a team favored by 10 points may lose an important piece of the defense during the week. Before the game on Sunday, the points may shift slightly toward the underdog. These are seemingly small things, but so many factors impact the score in the NFL. Handicap your bets by watching for line movement until the last minute.

Top sportsbooks

Now that you know how to handicap NFL games like an expert, you need to know which sportsbooks are the best option in the sports betting scene. Whether you are looking for the best lines, the most betting markets, prop bets, and more for each popular sport, these sportsbooks are the best in the game.

BetMGM Sportsbook

BetMGM Sportsbook is here to provide tremendous value all season long. Whether you bet on football (NFL), baseball (MLB), or some other sport, your bets will mean more when you use one of the top online sportsbooks each week.

As one of the top sportsbooks, BetMGM has one of the best offers to bolster your bankroll. During the NFL season, new users can sign up and make their first bet mean more. Make a deposit, place your bets, and hope for the best. If your bet loses, you will get up to $1,500 in bonus bets to try to pick a winner on another game. Take the football season to another level and be on the edge of your seat through the final score thanks to BetMGM.

FanDuel Sportsbook

Like the NFL is the king of football, FanDuel Sportsbook may very well be the king of sports betting. Sharp bettors and amateurs alike flock to the sportsbook to play the moneyline, spread, and more across all major sports. When you play at FanDuel, you can make the most of the best example of a new user offer.

Start by signing up at FanDuel. Make a deposit and get ready to make your first wager, whether on a favorite or underdog. If your fist bet winds up winning, you will earn $300 in bonus bets. With that many bonus bets in tow, you can take on NFL betting throughout the season with a winning mindset no matter which teams are involved.

BetRivers Sportsbook

When you want to bet on the sport of choice, BetRivers is here to accommodate the betting public. Before you take a look at each game on Sunday, make sure that you up your chances of success by signing up for one of the best offers out there.

Create a new account, make a deposit, and pick a game to wager on. If your bet is a winner, all is well. But if your bet winds up losing, you will get up to $500 back in bonus bets to try again. There are a lot of key numbers to follow in NFL betting, but $500 in bonus bets is one of the best options around.

Fanatics Sportsbook

Though it may be one of the newer choices when talking about mainstream media sportsbooks, don’t overlook what Fanatics Sportsbook brings to the table. With competitive odds on moneyline and spread wagers, you can place your bets like quarterbacks dishing out deep balls.

Bettors that sign up today need only to make a deposit and get ready to place bets on NFL Sunday. Each game day, bettors will get up to $100 back in bonus bets for losing wagers. You can bet confidently on each game, play the points or the spread, and even up the stakes knowing you have another shot at winning.

Take Your NFL Betting to the Next Level

Every week, there are several NFL games worth betting on. Whether you choose one team or play each game on the schedule, you can handicap games and analyze the factors to make the best bets possible. No matter how much you have on the line, play the NFL season as you see fit and take the action to a new level.