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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
October 27th, 2023
As well as three plays of interest, we will recommend some player props for Week 8 in the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams are a poster child for the up-and-down nature of the NFL, playing their best football in this role off a loss. Los Angeles is 23-13-4 ATS off a SU loss under coach Sean McVay, including an 8-2 ATS mark in the last 10 road games.
The Rams still have plenty of firepower offensively and should stay competitive with the Cowboys. Dallas has failed to cover two straight off a SU and ATS win, defeating the Chargers in Los Angeles in a virtual home game last week, and they haven’t been efficient offensively in three of the last four games, slipping to 20th in the league in yards per play (5.0). Tony Pollard is slumping, and the Cowboys must go up against the Rams' seventh-ranked pass defense. Dak Prescott is 4-8 ATS in the last 12 games off an ATS win.
Pittsburgh is starting to find its mojo, rallying to defeat Baltimore two weeks ago and dominating the fourth quarter 14-0 in a road win at the Rams last week, and Mike Tomlin is 18-5-3 ATS as a home dog, the best record in the wild-card era. The Steelers got receiver Diontae Johnson back from injury last week, George Pickens is starting to make a major impact, and bad weather (90% chance of rain) only favors Pittsburgh’s tough defense.
Jacksonville took advantage of a home setting in three consecutive weeks (two London games and Indy at home) before winning in a dome at punchless New Orleans last week. After playing their best football for a long stretch, the Jaguars are ripe for a letdown at Pittsburgh.
New Orleans has a strong under record, but the over is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 Indianapolis games. The Colts are effective in the red zone because they run effectively, ranking fourth in the league with 11 rushing touchdowns, and Indianapolis will surrender points, ranking 30th in scoring defense (27.3 points per game).
Both teams will move the football up and down the field. New Orleans has been outscored by Jacksonville, Houston, and Tampa Bay in three of the last four games, allowing nearly 30 points per game, and its defense isn’t playing with the same efficiency as earlier in the season. We’ll side with the low over total.
pic.twitter.com/X0ofrxuhlj— Lamar Jackson (@Lj_era8) September 7, 2023
With a new offensive coordinator and top-notch receivers, Lamar Jackson has put up strong numbers all season, ranking first in the league by averaging more than 13 yards per pass completion, but dropped passes were an issue, especially in a loss to Pittsburgh in Week 5 that the Ravens allowed to slip away. That loss energized the receiving room, and Baltimore’s passing attack is now rolling, as Jackson completed 21 of 27 passes for 357 yards and three TDs. Jackson will continue to make a statement against an Arizona pass defense that ranks in the bottom 10.
Isiah Pacheco ranks seventh in rushing attempts this season and will be motivated for this showdown after gaining only 62 rushing yards against Denver’s league-worst rushing defense (167.3 rushing yards allowed per game) in Week 5. The Broncos have been particularly atrocious at home, allowing 371 combined rushing yards in the last two games, and Pacheco is set for a big afternoon for Kansas City, which can dominate this matchup with defense and a conservative offensive approach.
Jimmy Garoppolo returned to practice, but he remains questionable for Monday’s game due to a back issue and can’t afford to take many hits. Las Vegas could not throw effectively with Brian Hoyer in Week 7, Aidan O’Connell may get the call if Garoppolo can’t go, but the rookie struggled with pressure in a Week 4 appearance and the Raiders will face a Detroit defense that will be highly motivated off an ugly loss to Baltimore. Davante Adams is sharing receptions with Jakobi Meyers; look for another disappointing showing from him and the Raiders passing offense.
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