NFL Over/Under Wins: Best Team Totals to Bet Now (2025)

Sports betting, particularly during the NFL season, can be a bit comprehensive. You can bet on everything from player props to who will win the Super Bowl. As it turns out, you can also bet on the regular-season record for each NFL team.

NFL win totals odds are relatively simple. If you have a feeling about which teams will fall short, which made the right roster changes, and which teams will have losing records, this is the perfect betting option. Read on to find out more about season win totals, odds, and how NFL win totals for the regular season can be wagered on.

What are NFL Over/Under Win Totals?

Before we can look at the win total of each team, it helps to know what the NFL win totals odds are. To put it simply, each team has a projected win total number posted by each sportsbook. This isn’t necessarily how many games the team will win, but rather a barometer.

To bet on NFL win totals, you choose whether they will go over or under that projected win total. For instance, if the Philadelphia Eagles have an over/under of 11.5, you would wager whether their regular-season win totals will be more or less than 11.5. Odds shift throughout the course of the season, and last season is forgotten as soon as the new one begins.

2025 NFL Win Totals – Full List for All 32 Teams

Best Over Bets for the 2025 NFL Season

Nailing down the teams that will top their projected win total in the regular season is tougher than it looks. That said, of all the projected NFL win totals, these three teams stand a cut above the rest.

Honorable mention: the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Washington Commanders, Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, and Tennessee Titans could all be teams that top their projected win total.

Carolina Panthers Over 6.5 Wins

The Panthers were a laughingstock last season, but that could change in 2025. They were active in free agency and the draft, including bringing in receiver Tetairoa McMillian with their first-round pick. They finished the regular season strongly last season, bringing momentum with them in 2025.

The defense will need to be better, and they’ll have to take advantage of divisional games in the weak NFC South. While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the inside track to win the division, the Panthers could make competition among the four teams in the division even tougher.

Arizona Cardinals Over 8.5 Wins

The Cardinals felt like they were right on the cusp at times last season. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing will look to take his ground game to the next level with James Conner and build on a promising rookie season from the hyper-talented Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Cardinals won eight games last season. They have arguably made more improvements than the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams this offseason. By taking DT Walter Nolen in the first round, the hope is that the defense can do a better job holding other teams at bay. Getting to nine, maybe even 10, wins doesn’t feel out of the realm of possibility.

New York Giants Over 5.5 Wins

The Giants were abysmal last season, winning all of three games. They have questions at tight end, the offensive line, and a plethora of other places. They are the only team in the NFC East that seems definitively out of contention.

Having said that, there are critical pieces in place. They need a rookie running back to step up, and the quarterback is questionable, but the defense could be very good. They will give other teams fits and maybe even catch a few off guard to get above five wins.

Best Under Bets for the 2025 NFL Season

Unfortunately, not everyone is going to come close to hitting their NFL win totals. Though there are maybe five teams that will contend during the NFL season, they are no guarantee that they will surpass their regular-season win totals.

Kansas City Chiefs Under 11.5 Wins

Picking against a team that has won the Super Bowl three times in the past six seasons feels stupid, but hear us out. The Chiefs have been an elite regular-season and playoff team, winning the AFC West the past nine seasons (and counting).

That said, the Chiefs play with a target on their backs. They set an NFL record by winning 17 straight one-score games, something that just mathematically can’t continue. More of those games will swing the other way, and while they may win the division, they’ll need to do so with fewer than 12 wins.

Dallas Cowboys Under 7.5 Wins

Every season, the Dallas Cowboys are hyped to the moon. Yet every season, they seem to disappoint their fan base in new and fascinating ways. A season ago, the Cowboys finished 7-10, and things were far uglier than they seemed on paper.

If they manage to bring back all-everything pass rusher Micah Parsons, it could be a difference-maker. That said, the Cowboys have too many holes to fill and not enough viable assets to fill them with. If Parsons is gone, the Cowboys could be a six-win team. Until they prove otherwise, hammer the under on the Cowboys.

Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 Wins

One of the strategies mentioned earlier is to time your bet. Those who took the Chargers to win more than nine games and even win the division are probably kicking themselves for that pick now. That’s what happens when a team loses its best player, as the Chargers did when all-pro tackle Rashawn Slater was lost for the season due to injury.

Jim Harbaugh is an excellent coach who gets the most out of his players. He has a quarterback in Justin Herbert who could be among the very best if the cards fall right. Losing Slater and not having a definitive standout option behind Ladd McConkey at receiver are question marks that can’t be ignored. For those reasons, look for the Chargers to fall short on their win totals for the season.

Betting Strategies for NFL Win Totals

Though there is a good amount of luck involved in picking NFL win totals, there is some science behind it. There are three main strategies to follow: timing your bets, tracking line movement, and having a hedging strategy in place.

Timing Your Bet

If you plan to wager on NFL win totals, get in early. A team like the Indianapolis Colts is a great example. Their line was a bit higher after the draft, but has since taken a hit with the struggles and injury woes of QB Anthony Richardson. The earlier you get in on the action, the less information the book has on that team.

Tracking Line Movement

Lines – the number of games the sportsbooks set as the over/under – shift all the time. With each preseason and regular season game, odds and win totals can change. Watch various sportsbooks to find the best line, especially if you have confidence in a team or two. This is the best way to find value with your bets and put you in a position to be successful.

Hedging Strategies

These are best on teams that you are on the fence about. For a good team like the Philadelphia Eagles, hitting 12 wins or more is tougher than it seems. Even if you are confident, having a hedge in place that would profit from the Eagles winning fewer than 12 games is a sound strategy.

Historical Trends in NFL Win Totals

Everyone analyzes projected NFL win totals to see which teams will take a step forward in the regular season. That said, there is a reason why choosing which teams will go over and which will fall under is generally a 50-50 play.

Though we would love for there to be a correlation between preseason wins and regular-season wins, there aren’t many solid examples. From 2011 to 2016, teams that won their Week 3 preseason game went on to win more regular-season games than their counterparts, however.

A few teams manage to stand out when it comes to beating the projections. The Baltimore Ravens have done well historically. The Cleveland Browns, meanwhile, have consistently fallen under their projected NFL win totals.

Expert Picks – NFL Over/Under Wins 2025

Which NFL team has the best shot of going over its projected regular-season win totals? Here are the expert picks to top their NFL win totals for 2025.

Baltimore Ravens, Under 11.5 Wins (-105)

This pick isn’t an indictment, but rather a point as to how tough the AFC North is. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens always play closely, the Cleveland Browns have the underdog factor, and the Cincinnati Bengals have an MVP candidate at QB. The Ravens will coast through the regular season with their eye on the Lombardi Trophy, so 10 wins feels like a safer bet.

New England Patriots, Under 8.5 Wins (-120)

The New England Patriots, under new coach Mike Vrabel, have everyone buzzing. After a busy offseason, many already have them above the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets in the AFC East. That said, the hype may be too much. Topping 8.5 regular-season wins feels like a bit much to ask at this stage, making them one of the teams where taking the under feels like a safe play.

Minnesota Vikings, Over 8.5 Wins (-155)

The Vikings are coming off a 14-win season, finishing second in the NFC North in the regular season behind the Detroit Lions. With QB Sam Darnold off to the Seattle Seahawks, youngster JJ McCarthy gets the nod. Head coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the best in the business, so getting nine wins feels more than achievable for him and the Vikings.

Denver Broncos, Over 9.5 Wins (-110)

There is a lot to like about Denver under head coach Sean Payton. The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West over the last decade, but that may change with this coming regular season. Though they won’t be Super Bowl contenders, the Broncos have a great defense and a rising QB, setting the table for them to best their projected NFL win totals.

Final Betting Tips Before You Wager

Projecting NFL win totals in the regular season is difficult. Shopping lines with various sportsbooks ensures you get the best possible value on your pick. Keep in mind that a lot can change over the course of the regular season for an NFL team. Injuries, strength of schedule, and more can dictate who fails and who tops their regular-season win totals.

You can compare the latest NFL win total odds on YouBet.com before placing your 2025 wagers. Stay up to date on current events for every NFL team and take your NFL betting strategy to the next level.