NFL Week 17 Best Bets & Parlays: Analyzing Underdogs

We’ve arrived at the penultimate week of the 2024 NFL regular season, and YouBet counts three home underdogs among its best plays in Week 17. Check out our picks and analysis below. All lines are courtesy of BetMGM, and times are listed as Eastern.

Cardinals at Rams (8:15 p.m. Saturday); Cardinals +6.5

The points are attractive between divisional rivals who know each other well, splitting the last four meetings, and the Cardinals in rebound mode after a poor defensive performance, losing in overtime at Carolina. The offense appears to have their mojo back after tailing off in late November, scoring 30 points in back-to-back games, and Arizona 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year. The Rams won by a misleading margin last week, trailing until the fourth quarter against a miserable Jets offense that appeared disinterested, and Los Angeles is exiting four consecutive narrow wins despite ranking in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense. Look for a correction this week; the public is overwhelmingly on the Rams and teams in their role (low-scoring offense on a 3+ game win streak) have gone 16-37 ATS since 2010.

Raiders at Saints (1 p.m.): Saints +1

These two teams are in opposite roles this week. After falling short on a two-point conversion versus Washington, the Saints came up flat and were shut out by Green Bay in Week 16. The Raiders took advantage of an opportunity against inept Jacksonville, finding a way to snap a 10-game losing streak despite being held under 20 points for the sixth consecutive week, but continued prosperity is unrealistic considering their quarterback situation and lack of a viable ground game (Saints held Brian Robinson Jr. to 65 rushing yards on 21 carries two weeks ago). We like the Saints’ coaching edge and expect them to take care of business at home against a Raiders squad ripe for a letdown.

Panthers at Buccaneers (1 p.m.): Buccaneers -8

Carolina exits a nice win (eliminating Arizona from playoff contention) and Bryce Young earned the top quarterback grade (91.7) from PFF last week, but this will be a tough spot against the Buccaneers, who committed a pair of costly turnovers and lost as a road favorite at Dallas last week. Tampa Bay figures to be motivated to get back on track, and they won’t take Carolina lightly after being forced to rally from a fourth-quarter deficit earlier in the season, winning in overtime despite outgaining the Panthers by a 236-78 margin in rushing yards. The Panthers still have plenty of deficiencies, being outgained 410-236 in total yards and losing 30-14 at home to Dallas two weeks ago, and the Buccaneers look set to rebound with a convincing win.

Dolphins at Browns (4:05 p.m. Sunday): Browns +6.5

The Browns are 4-1 ATS vs Dolphins in their last five home meetings and expected wet conditions will do the Dolphins no favors. Dorian Thompson-Robinson moved Cleveland’s offense up and down the field against Cincinnati in his first start last week, but three giveaways (including a fumble on the opening drive that was initially ruled a touchdown before being overturned) and failed fourth-down conversions led to a misleading final score (Cleveland held Cincy scoreless for more than two quarters). The Browns have played a brutal schedule, with 10 of their last 11 opponents in the mix for a playoff berth, but they’ve won two of the last four at home. And this is too many points to lay with one of the worst road teams in the league, as Miami has averaged only 15.3 points (31st-ranked) away from home. They scored only 12 points against slumping Houston in their last road game, and we give the Browns a chance to win straight up at home.

Lions at 49ers (8:15 Monday): Lions -3.5

Lions control their destiny but must keep winning to stay ahead of the Vikings, and Detroit keeps finding creative ways to keep rivals off balance, dominating a respectable Chicago defense last week. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and quarterback Jared Goff have a favorable matchup against the 49ers’ struggling defense that surrendered 166 rushing yards to Miami last week. San Francisco has become a shell of last year’s Super Bowl squad, losing four of the last five games, and they’ve been held to an average of 72 rushing yards over the last two weeks. Five of their last six losses have come by at least nine points, and San Francisco won’t be able to match points with the high-scoring Lions.