Super Bowl LIX odds update: 49ers favored to redeem Super Bowl LVIII loss

On Sunday night, the Kansas City Chiefs rallied to force overtime and win Super Bowl LVIII, handing the franchise back-to-back victories in the big game, with a chance to become the first team in the Super Bowl era to win three straight titles.

But early odds on Super Bowl LIX predict the runner-up from Super Bowl LVIII, the San Francisco 49ers, are more likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy next season. A +550 favorite at the moment, Kyle Shanahan's squad was favored to win Super Bowl 58 for a majority of the season and built an early 10-point lead in Super Bowl LVIII before the tide shifted in Kansas City's favor late in the third quarter. 

A blocked extra-point attempt by 49ers kicker Jake Moody early in the fourth quarter during a sloppy Super Bowl ultimately made the difference, as Chiefs placekicker Harrison Butker was able to tie the game up on a 29-yard field goal with three seconds remaining in regulation. In just the second Super Bowl to go to overtime, the Niners struck first with a field goal but Kansas City answered with a touchdown on its first possession of extra minutes to prevail 25-22.

Now Patrick Mahomes, a three-time Super Bowl MVP, is on a quest to three-peat, and his Chiefs are the +650 second choice to secure a win in Super Bowl LIX. During the 2023 season, Kansas City finished with an 11-6 regular-season record and went 4-4 coming out of the bye week, but Andy Reid’s team turned it up just in time for the postseason to reach a sixth straight AFC Championship Game. Considering the Chiefs' penchant for making the big game since Mahomes took over as starter, a bet on another Kansas City Super Bowl title may be worth considering. The Chiefs have now reached the Super Bowl in four of the past five seasons.

Mahomes will be back to spearhead the offense, as will star tight end Travis Kelce, who silenced speculation that he could retire after the season during Sunday's postgame interviews. However, five-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Chris Jones could find himself on another team as an unrestricted free agent in 2024, while receiver Mecole Hardman — who scored the game-winning touchdown in overtime on Sunday — and Clyde Edwards-Helaire also hit free agency ahead of the coming season.

AFC makes up five of the top seven in Super Bowl odds

Behind the Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens are the third choice (+900) to win Super Bowl LIX after John Harbaugh’s squad made the AFC Championship Game in 2023, the first time since the Ravens won Super Bowl XLVII in February 2013. Quarterback Lamar Jackson signed a five-year, $260 million contract extension in April 2023 and will return to play alongside wideout Zay Flowers, who had a breakout season as a rookie, and Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews.

Among the Ravens players hitting free agency in the offseason are receiver Odell Beckham Jr., right guard Kevin Zeitler, lead running back Gus Edwards, and linebacker Patrick Queen.

Another AFC powerhouse, Buffalo, is a +1000 choice to win Super Bowl LIX. For the third time in four seasons, Kansas City knocked the Bills out of the postseason, giving Mahomes a 3-0 record over Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen in the playoffs. In the regular season, however, Allen is 3-1 when facing Mahomes and Kansas City.

The Bills owned the fourth-best scoring defense in the regular season and allowed the ninth fewest yards per game, but they’ll have a number of defensive players set to become free agents in the offseason, including safety Micah Hyde, defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, and linebacker Leonard Floyd.

The Cincinnati Bengals (+1300) and Miami Dolphins (+1700) are the two other AFC teams who rank in the top seven on the Super Bowl LIX oddsboard. The Bengals were without franchise quarterback Joe Burrow for most of the second half of the 2023 season while he was sidelined with a wrist injury, but he’s expected to be ready to play by Week 1 of the 2024 season. Burrow may be without two key weapons in 2024, though, as receivers Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are unrestricted free agents. Defensive tackle D.J. Reader will hit free agency as well.

As for the Dolphins, the league’s No. 1 offense in 2023 is expected to retain the core of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, plus running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.

Lions, Eagles among top NFC choices to win Super Bowl LIX

Following a franchise-tying 12-win season in 2023, Detroit will enter 2024 with great expectations. The Lions made it back to the conference championship for the first time since 1991 in head coach Dan Campbell’s third season, and they were narrowly defeated in this year’s NFC championship, as San Francisco came from behind to win 34-31.

Detroit owned the third-best offense (394.8 yards per contest) in 2023 and held opponents to just 88.8 rushing yards per contest, second fewest in the league. With a mix of young and veteran talent, this franchise is on the up-and-up and could be even more dangerous in 2024. The Lions are currently listed as the second choice among NFC teams to win Super Bowl LIX, with +1200 odds.

The Philadelphia Eagles (+2000) own the third-best odds of any NFC team to win Super Bowl 59, but the Eagles had a down year coming off a runner-up effort in Super Bowl LVII. Center Jason Kelce will probably retire, and running back D’Andre Swift will become a free agent this offseason.

Panthers bottom-out Super Bowl LIX odds

The team with the worst record in 2023, the 2-15 Carolina Panthers are likely to struggle again in 2024 and own the worst odds to win Super Bowl LIX, at +25000. The second-worst Super Bowl odds belong to the Tennessee Titans (+15000), who fired head coach Mike Vrabel after his sixth season in charge. Former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan was hired in his place. The Titans will also potentially lose running back Derrick Henry to free agency, as well as defensive end Denico Autry and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.

The outlook is murky for two AFC West teams as well. The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos both own +10000 odds to win Super Bowl LIX. The New England Patriots, New York Giants, and Washington Commanders also boast +10000 odds ahead of the 2024 season.