2024 NCAA Tournament odds update: UConn favored to win back to back

With the calendar officially turning over to March, it’s time to hyper-focus on college basketball and uncover the teams most likely to make an impact in the NCAA Tournament.

Beginning on March 4, the ASUN will kick off its conference tournament, while the Ivy, A-10, American, Big Ten, and SEC tournaments close out Championship Week right before Selection Sunday on March 17.

Below YouBet takes a look at the current NCAA Tournament oddsboard and notes a few teams to watch ahead of March Madness.

No. 3 UConn favored to win school's sixth NCAA championship

Last year's NCAA champion UConn (+500) marched all the way to the national semifinal as a No. 4 seed and dominated the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes in a 72-59 beatdown before collecting the school's fifth NCAA banner with a 76-59 trouncing of No. 5 seed San Diego State.

This year, the Huskies looked primed for another deep run in the tournament as the No. 3 team in the current AP poll. The third-best team in adjusted offensive efficiency in the KenPom rankings, UConn averages 81.3 points per contest and a 49.4% field-goal percentage, 10th best in the country. The Huskies also average 17.8 assists per game (tied for seventh best) and 5.3 blocks per game (tied for 12th best).

On defense, they hold opponents to 64.1 points per outing and a 39.9% field-goal percentage, while they rank eighth in rebounds, at 29.7 per game.

UConn has just three losses on the season, a 69-65 defeat at Kansas on Dec. 1, a 75-60 loss at Seton Hall on Dec. 20, and a troubling 85-66 setback at No. 15 Creighton on Feb. 20 that snapped a 14-game win streak just three days after UConn beat then-No. 4 Marquette by 28 points and one day after the Huskies were voted the first unanimous No. 1 in the AP poll this season.

Houston dangerous behind top-rated defense

The Cougars (+750) earned a No. 1 seed in last year's tournament for the second time in school history but ultimately fell short in the round of 16 to No. 5 Miami.

This year, Houston is back at the top of the college basketball food chain, as the No. 1 team in the current AP poll, with a 25-3 overall record and a 12-3 conference record in the Cougars' first season in the Big 12.

The top overall team in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to the KenPom rankings, Houston has held opposing teams to 56.2 points per game and a 37.7% field-goal percentage, ranking first in the nation in both categories. The Cougars also rank eighth in offensive rebounds (14.3) and average the fifth fewest turnovers per game (8.7) as well as the sixth-most steals (10.5).

Offensively, Houston ranks third to last in the Big 12 in field-goal percentage (43.4%) and second to last in free-throw percentage (68.8%), which could be a liability come tournament time.

The Cougars were the last unbeaten team during the 2023-24 regular season and had their 12-game road win streak snapped in their first Big 12 road matchup in a 57-53 loss at Iowa State. Houston proceeded to drop its next game at TCU in a 68-67 defeat, but found its footing to string together a five-win streak before losing on the road to then-No. 8 Kansas on Feb. 3 in a 78-65 decision.

Last month, the Cougars got their revenge on then-No. 6 Iowa State with a 73-65 home victory and defeated Baylor on the road in overtime on Feb. 24. 

Alabama's top offense has been tested

No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, the Crimson Tide (+2500) average 91.5 points per game, but a lack of defense has recently caught up to them, with losses at Auburn and Kentucky in February.

Alabama's most recent defeat saw Kentucky score 117 points on the Crimson Tide, who also turned the ball over 16 times in the game. Nate Oats' team ranks dead last in the SEC in points surrendered (79.2) and third to last in the conference in opponent field-goal percentage (43.9%), steals (7.5), and blocks (4.2). On the plus side, the Crimson Tide defend the three well (32.1% opponent 3-point percentage) and are tied for first in the SEC in defensive rebounds (22.8).

Conference rival Kentucky (+2200) has similar strengths and weaknesses. The Wildcats rank sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency and boast a 49.5% field-goal percentage (eighth best in the country), while they hit threes at a higher rate than anyone in the nation (40.7%). But on defense, the Wildcats rank just above Alabama in points allowed (78.3) and sit second to last in the conference in rebounds per game (37.2). Where they excel is in shot-blocking, with 6.3 blocks per contest, tied for second most in college basketball.

Marquette, Baylor potential darkhorses

One school recently familiar with NCAA Tournament success, the Baylor Bears offer potential value at the moment on the NCAA Tournament oddsboard, at +4000 odds. The No. 15 school in the current AP poll, Baylor is fourth in KenPom's strength of schedule rankings while owning the No. 5 spot in adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Bears are 19-8 on the season, but their last five losses have been close, with three of those games going into overtime, including one triple-overtime loss (105-102) to TCU. In February, the Bears dropped a road game to then-No. 25 BYU, 78-71, and fell in overtime at home to Houston, 82-76, the following game.

The Bears rank 24th in the country in points per contest (81.6) behind a 39.7% 3-point percentage (fifth-best in the country) and a 48.7% field-goal percentage (21st). Rebounding has been a concern, however, as they rank second to last in the conference in defensive boards (23.7) and allow the third-most points per game in the Big 12 (70.8).

Baylor has also faced opposing defenses that rank first in KenPom's average adjusted defense, and the Bears' opposing offenses rank 16th in average adjusted offensive efficiency. With the right draw in the tournament, the Bears can go deep and potentially reach the national semifinal for the fourth time in school history.

Another team looking for a fourth appearance in the last four of the tournament is Marquette (+2000), who has consistently improved over the last three seasons since hiring head coach Shaka Smart. The No. 5 team in the nation, with a 21-6 record, the Golden Eagles have faced the 18th-toughest schedule, based on KenPom's rankings, and own the No. 21 offense in adjusted efficiency and the 14th-best defense based on adjusted defensive efficiency.

Marquette's losses include a 78-75 defeat against then-No. 2 Purdue in late November, a 75-64 loss at Wisconsin in December, a bad 72-57 defeat at Providence on Dec. 19, and close losses at Seton Hall and versus Butler in early January.

The Golden Eagles turned the tables after dropping a home game to the Bulldogs, 69-62, and went on an eight-game win streak before falling to then-No. 1 UConn, 81-53, on the road. Their signature wins include a 73-59 victory over then-No. 1 Kansas in late November and an 86-65 beatdown of then-No. 12 Texas in early December.

Marquette will get a rematch with UConn on March 6 and faces No. 12 Creighton on the road March 2. Free-throw percentage (72%) and rebounding (33.1) need to get sharper ahead of the tournament, but if anyone can take a darkhorse deep into the tournament, it's Smart, who led VCU to its first and only national semifinal appearance during the 2010-11 season.