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college basketball

NCAAB: Maryland vs. Michigan odds, preview, and pick

Michigan Wolverines guard Franz Wagner (21). (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Dan Halverson

January 18th, 2021

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Halfway through the 2020-21 regular season, the Michigan Wolverines have now experienced their first dip of the season with an 18-point loss to Minnesota in their last outing. Now sitting at 11-1 overall, the Wolverines will look to bounce back on Tuesday, Jan. 19 in a matchup against the Maryland Terrapins.

Minnesota stopped Michigan dead in its tracks

Michigan began the season in blazing form, steamrolling nearly every opponent by double-digits, including some of their fellow top-level peers in the Big Ten. The Wolverines defeated 19th-ranked Northwestern by 19, 16th-ranked Minnesota by 25, and ninth-ranked Wisconsin by 23. It's arguably the most impressive stretch of play that any team has put together all season.

1⃣/6⃣: Michigan 82, Minnesota 57
1⃣/1⃣6⃣: Minnesota 75, Michigan 57

No. 23 @GopherMBB just handed No. 7 Michigan its first loss. pic.twitter.com/CzzHP6N6Fb

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) January 16, 2021

Last Saturday, however, that streak fell apart as they faltered against Minnesota, losing 75-57. Michigan turned the ball over 20 times, and for the first time this year their star 7'1" big man, Hunter Dickinson, failed to score in double-digits. While it was a blowout loss that snapped their 11-game winning streak, it likely wasn’t as bad as the defeat looks on paper.

Michigan manhandled Maryland on New Year's Eve

When Michigan returns to the court, it will be against an 8-6 Maryland team they previously defeated on Dec. 31, 84-73. In that matchup, Dickinson was a dominant force, putting up 26 points on 10-11 shooting. Maryland outshot Michigan from beyond the arc in that game, going 13-22 for 59% from outside, while Michigan managed to only go 6-19 (31%).

For the year, however, Maryland is just 36.5% from deep and Michigan is 36.4%. When these teams face off again, the shooting disparity is almost certain to shrink relative to what occurred in their first dust up. If Maryland shoots closer to its season averages, the Terrapins will struggle to keep pace with the high-scoring Michigan offense.

Michigan's offense will be too much for Maryland to overcome

According to KenPom, Michigan is the fifth-most efficient team in the country, and has a relatively slow but purposeful offense. They are outscoring teams by over 17 points per game at home, and had little trouble against the Terrapins in their first matchup. Four players scored in double-digits in that game, and the turnovers that plagued the Wolverines in their last game against Minnesota is a more easily fixable shortcoming than shooting or defensive woes.

Look for Michigan to get right back on track, and return to looking like the top 10 team they are against the Terrapins.

Score prediction: Michigan 88, Maryland 75 

NCAAB pick: Michigan 

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