Odds say Big 12 will produce the next March Madness champion
Baylor Bears guard Jared Butler drives against Kansas State Wildcats guard DaJuan Gordon. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
March 16th, 2021
Gonzaga is the No. 1 overall seed and the favorite to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament, but the West Coast Conference somehow isn't favored to produce the next Division 1 champion.
Oddsmakers instead are targeting the Big 12, which has seven teams participating in March Madness, compared to just two for the West Coast Conference.
Let’s examine the odds and dive into which conference will emerge victorious on April 5 in Indianapolis.
NCAAB Winning Conference
| Conference | Odds |
|---|
Big 12 | +100 |
Big Ten | +105 |
West Coast | +200 |
Southeastern | +650 |
Atlantic Coast | +1000 |
American Athletic | +1200 |
Pac-12 | +1250 |
Big East | +1500 |
The Favorites
The Big 12 may be at the top of the list, but it has plenty of company with the Big Ten, and West Coast conferences looming at short odds. The Big 12 may have less teams than the Big Ten, but those teams are highly seeded. The seven teams from the conference are seeded 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6, and 8.
Baylor is the No. 2 overall seed and is the second favorite (+500) to win it all. The Bears went 22-2 on the season with their only losses at Kansas and in the Big 12 tournament to Oklahoma State. Baylor also defeated fellow No. 1-seed Illinois in December.
Illinois and Baylor are in a tight one in Indianapolis.
— College Basketball Bonanza (@CollegeBonanza) December 3, 2020
Use halftime to grab the popcorn. This is going to get even better in the second half once the first half comes to a close. pic.twitter.com/dMLfC5LPPH
The Big Ten is just slightly behind the Big 12 in odds, and has an astounding nine teams in the Big Dance and four of the top seven overall seeds. After Gonzaga and Baylor, the next four favorites to win it all come from the Big Ten.
Illinois is extremely hot, but went 3-6 against teams that made the NCAA Tournament before ending the season with six straight wins against such teams. Michigan lost three of its final five games, and Iowa is 2-5 in games against the top 16 overall seeds. The Big Ten has the quality, but may not be tough enough to produce the last team standing.
The West Coast Conference is just a bit behind these two conferences on the odds board, but is still far ahead of the rest of the field. This is clearly due to the nature of having Gonzaga as a representative. The West Coast Conference also has BYU, but the Cougars are a No. 6-seed on the same half of the bracket, and have +10000 odds to win it all.
"I like the Zags ... they're gonna win this tournament."@DickieV says Gonzaga will complete the perfect season. pic.twitter.com/Woeu5u8Xme
— ESPN (@espn) March 14, 2021
The Dark Horses
There are two major conferences missing from the favorites section that typically find themselves in the discussion: the SEC and ACC. The SEC is missing its biggest historical draw in the Kentucky Wildcats. However, both Alabama (+2000) and Arkansas (+5000) are live longshots to come out on top.
The ACC is missing the Duke Blue Devils, and the North Carolina Tar Heels are a mediocre No. 8-seed. However, the conference does still have Virginia (+4000), and Florida State (+4000) as possible contenders.
The Pick
Typically, I like to look for value when making future wagers like this. However, I have a tough time seeing an ACC team making a run past the Sweet 16. I also do not love the SEC’s chances, as Alabama and Arkansas both have to get by Gonzaga and Baylor, respectively, to advance.
Ultimately, I just cannot see Gonzaga losing a game this season. The Zags beat the No. 2, 3, and 4 seeds in their region during the regular season, and once they get to the Final Four, they will not let this special season slip away without a title.
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