2024 NBA Finals Preview: Wrong Team Favored

After compiling an 11-6 ATS record in the postseason, Dallas enters the NBA Finals playing its best basketball of the season. Boston has compiled a 2-6 ATS mark in its last eight postseason games.

The wrong team is favored in the 2024 Finals.

Dallas is peaking around its best player, Luka Doncic, who proved unstoppable taking over series-clinching Game 5 (36 points, 10 rebounds) in the Western Conference Finals. He has brought out the best in Kyrie Irving, who is in a career resurgence, and they combine to provide Dallas with a lethal backcourt.

“They won the series,” Minnesota coach Chris Finch said following a 21-point home loss in Game 5. “They earned the series. They deserve the series. Congrats to them and their entire staff. They were led by two world-class players that played at a world-class level.”

Dallas owns more advantages. Big men are not vital during the lengthy 82-game regular season, but it becomes more of a possession-by-possession-type game during the postseason. Size matters more, and Dallas owns a significant edge when it comes to size and inside presence.

Along with his rebounding and shot-blocking, rookie center Dereck Lively II has made an enormous difference while developing into an elite passer. And the Mavericks don’t receive enough credit for swinging a monumental trade on Feb. 8, acquiring Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, a pair of big men performing at career-best levels. 

Dallas likes to block shots and control the offensive glass, leading all playoff teams by averaging 11.4 offensive rebounds per game in the postseason.

Boston will get Kristaps Porzingis back from a leg injury, but he won’t be in game shape to start the series. That means a heavy dose of Al Horford, who has struggled to guard the pick-and-roll in Porzingis’ absence, forcing the Celtics to rely upon Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for rebounding.

Their strategy worked against a caravan of banged-up and over-the-top teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs — Miami (Jimmy Butler hurt), Cleveland (Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen sidelined for most games), and Indiana (Tyrese Haliburton lost after Game 2). But Boston will face a different beast in the Finals.

The Mavericks will look to push Boston around inside.

Analytics favor Boston because of the regular season. The Celtics overpowered most rivals with their high-tempo offense, compiling the best regular-season record and finishing top five in most important statistical categories, but Dallas is playing at a higher level in the postseason, finishing with the top-ranked offense during the Western Conference Finals.

And Dallas is battle-tested, defeating the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder in six-game series before dismantling Minnesota. Those were three of the top five teams in total defense during the regular season.

Doncic is on a mission to win his first NBA championship, elevating his level of play during the postseason run, and his supporting cast will give Boston all it can handle.

Fortunate for us, the wrong team is favored in the Finals.

YouBet's main play is Dallas +175 to win the series. And we will make sizable wagers on the Mavericks as underdogs in Games 1 and 2.

Good luck!