NFL Super Bowl odds update heading into Week 7

The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles remained unbeaten heading into Week 6, but both dropped the ball against inferior teams playing behind back-up quarterbacks on Sunday.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was picked off three times in a 20-14 defeat at the New York Jets, and second-year 49ers signal caller Brock Purdy was exposed against the Cleveland Browns and P.J. Walker after San Francisco lost Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to injuries mid-game.

Despite playing short-handed and racking up 12 penalties for 105 yards, San Francisco had a chance to win the game on a 41-yard field goal, but rookie kicker Jake Moody missed wide right, handing Cleveland a 19-17 win.

The 49ers are the top choice to win the Super Bowl at +400 odds heading into Week 7, while the Kansas City Chiefs sit in second on the odds board at +500, followed by the Eagles at +800.

Rounding out the top five are the Miami Dolphins (+900), Buffalo Bills (+1000), and the Dallas Cowboys (+1000), who narrowly survived to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 20-17 in L.A. on Monday Night Football.

Remain cautious with the Dolphins

Hosting the 0-6 Panthers on Sunday, Miami fell into a 14-0 hole in the first quarter but turned up the heat from there on out, scoring 21 points in the second and another 21 coming out of the locker room to prevail 42-21.

Against the league’s third-worst rushing defense, the Dolphins racked up 162 yards on the ground, including 115 from Raheem Mostert, who averaged 6.8 yards per carry and reached paydirt three times, twice from rushing scores.

Leading MVP candidate Tua Tagovailoa also had a field day, with three touchdown passes and 262 yards on 21-of-31 passing before he was replaced by backup Mike White with four minutes remaining in regulation. On the season, Tagovailoa has recorded 1,876 passing yards, the most in the league through six weeks.

The Dolphins also rank first in total offense, passing and rushing, as well as points per contest.

On defense, however, they have surrendered the seventh most points (156) and are tied for the third fewest takeaways, which makes them potentially vulnerable against tougher teams they’ll confront in the postseason.

The Dolphins have mostly beaten up on subpar teams to start the season, including the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, and New York Giants, all 1-5 this season.

Against the 4-2 Buffalo Bills, Miami suffered its lone loss, a 48-20 onslaught in which Miami gave up four sacks, was called for eight penalties, and turned the ball over twice. Buffalo piled up 414 yards of offense in the matchup and went 5-for-10 on third down, while Bills quarterback Josh Allen averaged 11.5 yards per pass.

In Week 7, Miami will get another test from a top-tier team in the Eagles, who rank second in total offense and rushing, as well as second in the league in rushing defense.

A win on the road in Philly would prove the Dolphins are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Lions on the way to first playoff berth since 2016

Dating back to 2000, the Detroit Lions have reached the postseason just three times, the same number of times the franchise has advanced beyond the Wild Card Round in the Super Bowl era.

But this season — head coach Dan Campbell’s third at the helm — Detroit may finally be a true playoff threat behind a top-three offense and the No. 1 rushing defense in the league.

The Lions opened the season with a one-point victory at Arrowhead against defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City and endured one loss so far, a 37-30 overtime defeat to Seattle at home.

Detroit put away division rival Green Bay 34-20 inside Lambeau Field but has yet to face the other opponents in the NFC North, the 1-5 Chicago Bears and 2-4 Minnesota Vikings.

The Lions visit AFC North leader Baltimore in Week 7 before hosting the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football, then get a week of rest. Coming out of the bye week, their toughest games will be at the Chargers in Week 10 and at the Cowboys in Week 17. Otherwise, Detroit should have a manageable slate against Chicago (twice), Minnesota (twice), Green Bay and Denver at home, and the 3-3 New Orleans Saints on the road.

If the playoffs were to start today, Detroit would own the No. 3 seed and would get a rematch with Seattle. The Eagles or Niners on the road would certainly be a tall order in the next round, but after both teams got exposed this weekend, it’s not out of the question the Lions could sneak past either one. 

As crazy as it may sound based on the franchise's history, Detroit may indeed be a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2024.