Broncos vs. Raiders: NFL Week 16 betting odds, preview, and pick

The Las Vegas Raiders will look to keep their playoff hopes alive on Sunday afternoon, when they host their division rival, the Denver Broncos, in Week 16 of the NFL season.

Lock gets another shot as Broncos quarterback

It looked like a scary injury, but thankfully Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be OK after a punishing hit in the Broncos' 15-10 defeat to the Bengals on Sunday. Bridgewater is in concussion protocol and will miss this week’s game against the Raiders.

Replacing Bridgewater is last year's starter, Drew Lock, who led the NFL in interceptions and had the worst completion percentage in the entire league last season. His struggles prompted the trade for Bridgewater, and Lock has filled in sporadically this season with little success. In just over four quarters of action, he has thrown two interceptions and fumbled the ball once.

That fumble came Sunday, as he lost the ball inside Cincinnati’s 10-yard line with 10 minutes to play. Denver would never come close to scoring again, as the fumble ended the team's hopes of winning the game. The Broncos' loss on Sunday gives them less than an 8% chance to make the playoffs.

Lock ended the game with 88 yards while completing half of his 12 attempts.

Denver’s defense has more than done its part, ranking fourth in total yards allowed and second in scoring defense. However, the Broncos have failed to score 14 or more points in five defeats this season, and have not reached the 20-point mark in six of their seven losses.

Raiders control their own destiny

For the 28th time in his NFL career, Derek Carr led his team on a game-winning drive as he marched the Raiders down for a field goal as time expired on Monday night.

His 28 such drives are the most of any quarterback since his debut in 2014, and it puts Las Vegas in control of its own playoff destiny. Wins in the Raiders' final three games against the Broncos, Colts, and Chargers would see them sneak in.

In a game that was delayed from its original Saturday time slot, Las Vegas defeated a depleted Browns team with a 16-14 road win. The Raiders not only faced the Browns’ practice squad quarterback, they had a touch of luck, as they fumbled the ball four times and recovered all of them.

The win is just their second in the last seven games, following a 5-2 start. The slide coincides with the dismissal of wide receiver Henry Ruggs III from the team, who was their only true big-play threat.

Carr has now thrown for at least 4,000 yards in four straight seasons, and has a real shot at reaching 5,000 yards with three games remaining. His 236 yards puts him at 4,162 for the season, already a career high, but he has thrown just 19 touchdowns on 534 attempts.

The Raiders rank fourth in passing yards but 18th in points scored. They have scored touchdowns on just half of their red-zone trips (fifth worst mark in the league).

The defense has allowed five more points per game than the offense scores, and it has allowed more than 30 points in four of the last six games.

While the defense performed decently against Cleveland, it ranks among the 10 worst defenses in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed.

Broncos and Raiders Trends

• The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the Raiders
• The Under is 7-1 in Denver’s last eight games
• The Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games
• The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams
• The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against the Broncos

The Verdict

In his career against the Raiders, Lock has a 1-2 record, with four touchdowns and seven turnovers. His inability to protect the football is a huge problem for an offense that struggles to score points, as it is.

Even against a vulnerable and beatable Raiders defense — against which Bridgewater had his best game of the season in their Week 6 matchup — he can’t put up points if he cannot take care of the ball.

Additionally, the Raiders have performed better this season against pocket-oriented quarterbacks, and have been torched more by improvisers with good downfield vision.

I like the Raiders to win this game because they have a quarterback that can do so.

Lock has not shown that he is capable of winning this season, much less on the road in a big game with so much on the line.

Carr should be able to do just enough to get the win. Go with the Raiders moneyline for this game, and combine it with a low-scoring total for a Same Game Combo play.

Score prediction: Las Vegas 19, Denver 13

Week 16 NFL pick: Raiders ML (-124)

Same Game Combo: Raiders ML / Under 41.5 (+245)

Broncos vs. Raiders Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Raiders to win outright.