Browns vs. Packers: NFL Week 16 betting odds, preview, and pick

The Cleveland Browns had an opportunity on Monday evening to take first place in the hotly contested AFC North. After surrendering a 48-yard field goal as time expired to lose the game to the Las Vegas Raiders, they now find themselves in last place.

Now the Browns must collect themselves for another massive game in their pursuit of a division title, as they take to the road Sunday to play the Green Bay Packers.

Let’s break down the game.

The Packers are a league-leading 11-3 straight up on the year. They are also leading the league at 11-3 against the spread. The Browns are 7-7 straight up and 6-8 against the spread.

The spread for this game has the Packers favored by 7.5, with a total of 45. Things could certainly fluctuate a lot between now and kickoff, though, with the Browns being one of the most affected teams by injuries and COVID-19 at this point in the season.

Rodgers on a roll 

After a Week 1 blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints, there was plenty of reason to wonder if Aaron Rodgers’ offseason had set up the aging quarterback for a disappointing 2021.

It turns out he just needed one game to get rolling, as the veteran is now playing like the MVP of the league. The Packers have the No. 2 offense by Expected Points Added (EPA) this season, behind only the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are coming off a shutout home loss and have plenty of question marks.

Rodgers isn’t lighting things up statistically, as he is just 10th in passing yards, but his knowledge of the game is evident on every play. The nuance he brings to his work is something that is hard to quantify, besides the Packers’ record against the spread this season.

Rodgers is seventh in yards per attempt and has an excellent 30-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If he continues to play at this level, the Packers could easily enter the playoffs as the favorite to upset the Bucs in the NFC.

Browns and Packers betting trends

• Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
• Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus the Packers
• Cleveland is 2-5 straight up in its last seven road games
• Green Bay is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games
• Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games

Browns need Garrett and Clowney

The Browns were expected to have an elite pass rush this year, and at times it has looked excellent.

Heading into this game, however, the defensive line will need to be better than it's been to put pressure on Rodgers and keep him from being comfortable. The Packers’ offensive line has had injury woes this season, and if Rodgers doesn’t have time, his injured toe will keep him from being mobile enough to elude a strong pass rush.

Garrett injured his groin in the Browns’ last game against the Raiders, and Clowney will need to come off the reserve/COVID-19 list. Malik McDowell and Mack Wilson also need to be at full strength.

If the Browns can’t get to Rodgers, look for the MVP candidate to carve up this defense. If David Bakhtiari is a liability coming off his injury and the Packers’ line shows shakiness, then things might be close enough to provide some intrigue.

This far out from knowing the starting lineups, however, it is impossible to go against the red-hot Packers at home against a team that just had its heart broken less than a week ago.

Score prediction: Packers 27, Browns 17

NFL Week 16 pick: Packers -8