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nfl

Buccaneers vs. Giants: The best betting props for MNF

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans sprints towards the end zone. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Jeremy Jones

November 2nd, 2020

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Week 8 of the NFL season finishes off with a matchup of past vs. future at the quarterback position.

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are sitting at 5-2 and are atop the AFC South, while Daniel Jones and the New York Giants are 1-6, but are still alive in the terrible NFC East.

Here are the best betting props for the Week 8 Monday Night Football showdown between the Buccaneers and Giants.

Daniel Jones rushing yards

The Giants offensive line is certainly nowhere near the top of the positional rankings. Prior to the season, they were ranked 21st in the league by ESPN, and have allowed 20 sacks and are ranked 28th in rushing offense in 2020. Because of this, Jones is left to scramble multiple times per game and has racked up 296 rushing yards on the season, which is 42.3 yards per game.

One of the best #DanielJones vids yet! #NFL #Giants #NewYork pic.twitter.com/Y0yhe54E3g

— Heat Ratio Sports (HRS) (@heatratiosports) October 25, 2020

It's never a good thing for a team when the quarterback is the leading rusher by over 100 yards this early in the season. However, it is good for prop bettors as you can get this number much lower than a typical running back. This number is only 25.5 yards, which is nearly half his season per game average. Jones has hit this number in four of his past five games.

Tampa Bay does have the No. 1 rushing defense in the league. However, this number is not going to be hit because of called run plays for Daniel Jones. I like him to hit this number on scrambles alone.

Pick: Over 25.5 rushing yards (-115)

Ronald Jones rushing yards

2020 has been a resurrection of sorts for Ronald Jones. The 2018 second round pick has 506 rushing yards thus far this season after totaling only 768 rushing yards in his first two seasons combined. He is averaging 72.3 yards per game in 2020, and the number here is only 61.5 yards.

The Giants are surprisingly good at stopping opponents' running games despite their poor record. They rank eighth in the NFL in yards allowed at 105 yards per game. They have only allowed this number to three running backs this season (Benny Snell, David Montgomery, and Ezekiel Elliott).

The return of Leonard Fournette could be a major factor as well. Last week, Jones only had 13 carries for 34 yards against Las Vegas' poor run defense. Meanwhile, Fournette had 11 carries for 50 yards. The combination of the Giants run defense and return of Fournette really makes the Under a good bet here.

Takeaways #TBvsLV

1. Leonard Fournette healthy + Ronald Jones drop = Rojo 45% RB opps | LF 55%
2. Mike Evans 1.5 tgs/g w Chris Godwin in 🤮
3. Nelson Agholor sneaky wk5-7: 17 FP/g, 83% snaps
3a. 25% TS, 44% TAY wk7
4. Derek Carr wk6-7: 24,19.3 FP vs 2 top 10 D against QBs 👀 pic.twitter.com/BAzHOOhEzb

— Golden Gate Fantasy Football (@goldengate_ff) October 26, 2020

Pick: Under 61.5 rushing yards (-115)

Anytime touchdown scorer

Usually with this bet, I like to pick a longshot that I feel will reach the end zone. However, this week I am picking a more familiar name with a lot of confidence.

Chris Godwin will be out in this game and Antonio Brown cannot play until Week 9. The Giants have allowed a wide receiver to score a touchdown in every game except one this season. Mike Evans scored a touchdown in five consecutive games to start the season before failing to score the previous two games with Godwin active.

Most Receiving TDs since last season (WR):

1. Tyler Lockett - 15
2. Adam Thielen - 14
2. Mike Evans - 14
4. Tyreek Hill -13
4. Kenny Golladay -13#GoHawkspic.twitter.com/z2E5tjPrvY

— Inside Edge NFL (@IE_NFL) October 28, 2020

Evans has scored in his previous three matchups against the Giants dating back to the 2017 season. I expect him to see plenty of targets around the end zone again in this one.

Pick: Mike Evans (+110)

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