Chiefs favored to beat Packers in Super Bowl LVI

While the favorite to win Super Bowl LVI, Green Bay, is listed at +350, another way to get even longer odds on a Super Bowl prediction is to bet on the team you predict will win the title against who you think that team will beat.

In this market, not only do you have to pick the eventual winner, but you have to choose the loser, as well, in a unique type of parlay that offers enticing odds for someone looking to hit at +1000 or better.

There are currently co-favorites to win this field, with the Chiefs over the Packers and the Packers over the Chiefs both sitting at +1000.

This has likely occurred because the Packers are slight favorites overall but will presumably have a tougher conference championship game than the Chiefs, whereas the Chiefs appear to have their toughest opponent on the road to the Super Bowl in this weekend’s matchup against the Buffalo Bills.

Rodgers on a mission in potential 'last dance' in Green Bay

Between the two co-favorites, I prefer the Packers over the Chiefs at +1000. Aaron Rodgers is on a Michael Jordan-esque “Last Dance” mission and is getting several notable players back healthy in time for a playoff run.

The fact the Packers have an easier “first leg” to get to the big game, as 5.5-point favorites in the Divisional Round against San Francisco, compared to the Chiefs being two-point favorites against Buffalo this weekend is also more enticing.

The Chiefs offense has been more reliable, but only slightly. The defenses ended up with comparable numbers by season’s end, but I prefer the Packers’ secondary more with Jaire Alexander now coming back from injury. If I had to bet one of the co-favorites, Packers +1000 over Chiefs is the side I’d take.

Bucs over Bills an intriguing longshot play

If you’re looking for a longer shot, however, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Bills at +2500 looks interesting.

According to EPA metrics measuring offensive and defensive performance on the year, the Bills hold the slight edge as the top-rated team in the entire league. A lot of this is a result of blowout victories against weak opponents and should be taken with a grain of salt.

The second-rated team is the Bucs, the league’s defending champions that converted series at a near-historic rate in 2021, thanks to an incredibly effective offense led by Tom Brady.

The Bucs have taken a little bit of a downturn in public perception due to some late-season injuries, but this is still an incredibly talented team that will undoubtedly have its best for the playoffs.

Brady is playing as well as ever, and despite Antonio Brown’s release from the team, Brady has more than enough weapons, now that Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are back on the field. Running back Leonard Fournette should also return in time to be a contributor.

If the Bucs were to meet the Bills in the Super Bowl, the line would likely be close to a pick ‘em. And it is easy to envision a script in which Brady wins one final Super Bowl before handing over the league’s reins on elite quarterback play to the young but rising Josh Allen.

At +2500, there could certainly be worse bets than taking the greatest quarterback of all time and the second-highest rated team of the year to defeat the top-rated team of the season playing with a quarterback that has yet to play on the biggest stage.