Josh Allen 2020 passing props
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)
May 6th, 2020
From his rookie campaign to his second year in the NFL, Josh Allen made huge strides at quarterback for the Buffalo Bills. Ahead of the 2020 season, the former first-round draft pick is under pressure to take his game one step further and prove his long-term potential in Buffalo.
Let’s look at the Over/Under for his regular-season passing yards and passing touchdowns, and predict his performance in the upcoming season.
Josh Allen's regular-season passing yards
| Passing yards | Odds |
|---|
Over 3,150.5 | -125 |
Under 3,150.5 | +105 |
In Allen’s rookie season, he looked far from an NFL-caliber quarterback. He completed 52.8% of his passes for 2,074 yards and tossed more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10). He was far more effective in the run game, with 631 yards and eight scores on 89 carries.
With the addition of receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley in 2019, Allen found some much-needed help in the passing game and racked up 3,089 yards, and he boosted his completion rate to 58.8%. He also significantly cut down on his interceptions (nine) and doubled his touchdown total (20) through the air.
But the Bills offense could have performed much better. The team tied the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins for most dropped passes (36) but led the league in percentage of passes dropped (7%).
The Bills traded for Stefon Diggs to give Allen a true No. 1 receiver this season and another reliable target (68.4% career catch rate). In Minnesota last year, Diggs hauled in 63 passes for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns.
STEFON DIGGS TO THE BILLS 🚨
— Overtime (@overtime) March 17, 2020
Minnesota trades: Diggs, 2020 7th rd pick
Buffalo trades: 2020 1st, 5th and 6th rd picks, 2021 4th rd pick
(per @AdamSchefter) pic.twitter.com/jLcaLdy6Pu
Adding the trusty wideout to the mix should ease the pressure on Allen and open up lanes for Beasley and Brown, plus second-year tight end Dawson Knox (338 yards, two TDs last season).
To hit Over 3,150.5 yards, Allen would need just 62 more yards than his total from the year before. Here's the problem, though. The Bills face a much tougher schedule in 2020, featuring the AFC West and NFC West.
The Chiefs, Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, and Rams were all in the top 12 in pass defense last season. Pittsburgh (No. 3 pass defense) is also on the schedule, on top of AFC East foe New England, which ranked second in passing yards allowed (180.4). Allen will have his work cut out for him, and Devin Singletary may be called upon to push the ball on the ground more.
It'll be close, but Allen will hit just Under 3,150.5 yards.
NFL free pick: Under
Josh Allen's regular-season passing yards
| Passing yards | Odds |
|---|
Over 3,150.5 | -125 |
Under 3,150.5 | +105 |
Allen only has to add two more touchdown passes to his 2019 total (20) to hit the Over. Last year, Beasley and Brown hauled in six touchdown catches apiece, while Knox and Singletary tallied the next most, with two each.
Ruling on the field is overturned and it's a touchdown.
— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) November 24, 2019
Josh Allen connects with John Brown on a 34-yard touchdown pass.
Allen has now produced two touchdowns in seven consecutive games, tying the team record establish by Jim Kelly pic.twitter.com/gefiX3YT0Q
The Bills ran more (465 carries) than Allen passed (461 attempts), but Singletary and Frank Gore (now with the Jets) each only scored twice on the ground. Allen ran the ball into the end zone nine times.
Even if the Bills focus on the run game, Allen will be called upon to pass in the red zone. Defenses will focus on Diggs, which will create space for Beasley or Brown and give Allen more opportunity to connect with a target in the end zone. He should be able to put up a few more scores through the air and hit the Over.
NFL free pick: Over
Find more NFL passing props at BetAmerica.
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